Airtel, Jio Adding 4.1 Million and 7.2 Million Mobile Users in Q2 FY27

Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio are expected to continue gaining mobile subscribers in the September 2026 quarter, with Elara Securities forecasting additions of around 4.1 million and 7.2 million users, respectively. The brokerage also expects average revenue per user (ARPU) to rise for both operators, pointing to another steady quarter for India’s telecom industry.

Elara expects Airtel’s ARPU to increase 1.2% sequentially and 4.5% year over year to ₹267, while Jio’s ARPU is projected to rise 1% sequentially and 3% year over year to ₹218. The estimates come as operators benefit from premiumisation, 4G and 5G upgrades, postpaid migration and continued demand for broadband services.

Key takeaways

• Airtel is expected to add around 4.1 million mobile subscribers in Q2 FY27.
• Jio is expected to add around 7.2 million mobile subscribers.
• Airtel’s estimated Q2 ARPU is ₹267, up 1.2% QoQ and 4.5% YoY.
• Jio’s estimated Q2 ARPU is ₹218, up 1% QoQ and 3% YoY.
• Premiumisation and migration from 2G to 4G/5G are expected to support revenue.
• Home broadband is another expected growth driver.
• Vodafone Idea added about 750,000 subscribers during July-August, according to Elara.
• A separate Centrum estimate is more bullish on Jio, projecting roughly 8 million additions and 3 million for Airtel.
• Airtel’s Q2 FY27 results are tentatively scheduled for November 5, 2026.
• The outlook comes ahead of Reliance Jio Platforms’ expected IPO, making Jio’s operating performance particularly relevant to investors.

Airtel and Jio expected to keep adding subscribers

India’s telecom market is continuing to consolidate around its largest operators, and the September quarter is expected to reinforce that trend.

Elara Securities forecasts that Airtel will add approximately 4.1 million mobile subscribers during Q2 FY27, while Jio could add around 7.2 million. The estimates indicate that Jio is expected to remain the faster-growing operator in absolute subscriber additions.

The estimates are broadly consistent with the direction of recent TRAI data.

India added 5.5 million wireless subscribers in August alone, taking the country’s wireless subscriber base to roughly 1.29 billion. Jio added 2.4 million subscribers that month, while Airtel added 2.1 million, together accounting for more than 4.5 million of the industry’s net additions.

That momentum provides an important backdrop to the September-quarter forecasts.

Airtel’s ARPU advantage remains important

Subscriber additions are only one part of the telecom growth story.

Airtel has been able to generate more revenue per mobile customer than Jio, making ARPU a particularly important metric for the company.

Elara expects Airtel’s Q2 FY27 ARPU to reach ₹267, representing a 1.2% sequential increase and a 4.5% increase from the year-ago period.

The improvement is expected to come from several factors, including customers moving toward higher-value plans, 2G-to-4G/5G migration and increased adoption of postpaid services.

Airtel has also benefited from the discontinuation of some lower-value packs, according to Elara. The brokerage expects this to encourage migration toward higher-value plans, although the full impact may not appear in the September quarter because of recharge-cycle timing.

Why ARPU matters

ARPU measures the average revenue generated from each subscriber.

For telecom operators, increasing ARPU can be particularly valuable because network infrastructure and other fixed costs have already been incurred. If customers spend more without a proportionate increase in network costs, additional revenue can translate into stronger operating leverage.

This is why telecom companies have increasingly focused on premiumisation rather than simply chasing subscriber numbers.

Jio expected to reach ₹218 ARPU

Reliance Jio is also expected to see a modest improvement in monetisation.

Elara estimates Jio’s ARPU at ₹218 for Q2 FY27, up approximately 1% sequentially and 3% year over year.

Jio’s expected subscriber additions are considerably higher than Airtel’s, making the company particularly dependent on converting its enormous user base into higher-value customers.

The brokerage expects Jio’s growth to benefit from subscriber additions, home broadband and continued data consumption.

Jio has also introduced a ₹300 Prime membership that provides price protection on eligible plans until September 5, 2027. Elara believes the programme could help customer retention, although it could limit the immediate impact of tariff increases for customers covered by the price-protection arrangement.

Q2 estimates from brokerages differ

The subscriber forecasts should not be treated as company guidance.

Different brokerages are using different assumptions.

Elara estimates 4.1 million additions for Airtel and 7.2 million for Jio. A separate Centrum Institutional Research report cited by ETTelecom expects Jio to add roughly 8 million subscribers and Airtel around 3 million India wireless subscribers during the quarter.

The difference illustrates the uncertainty around quarterly subscriber movements.

Subscriber numbers can be affected by customer churn, recharge behaviour, SIM consolidation, migration between operators and the timing of new connections.

The broader conclusion, however, is similar: both Airtel and Jio are expected to continue gaining market share while Vodafone Idea remains under pressure.

Vodafone Idea shows signs of improvement

The country’s third major private telecom operator has been losing customers to Jio and Airtel for years, although recent data suggests the pace of deterioration may be changing.

Elara said Vodafone Idea added approximately 750,000 subscribers during July and August, indicating an improvement in customer retention.

Centrum is also more constructive on Vodafone Idea’s near-term subscriber trajectory, forecasting approximately 1 million additions during Q2 FY27.

However, Vodafone Idea remains financially and operationally behind its larger competitors.

Its ability to expand 5G coverage, raise network capacity and secure financing for planned capital expenditure will be critical to whether the recent improvement becomes sustainable.

Centrum said Vodafone Idea was in discussions with banks regarding a ₹250 billion debt fund raise as part of a larger ₹450 billion FY27-FY29 capital-expenditure programme.

Premiumisation is becoming the industry’s main growth engine

The telecom industry’s growth model has changed significantly.

For years, operators competed heavily on subscriber acquisition and low-cost prepaid plans. The market is now increasingly focused on monetising existing customers.

Premiumisation refers to encouraging customers to move from lower-value services to more expensive plans that offer greater data allowances, 5G access, entertainment benefits or other bundled services.

The strategy is particularly relevant because India’s telecom penetration is already high.

There is less room to generate dramatic growth simply by connecting new users. Operators therefore need to increase the amount they earn from their existing customer bases.

Elara expects this trend to support both Airtel and Jio during Q2 FY27.

4G and 5G migration remains a key opportunity

A major source of ARPU growth is the migration of customers away from older network technologies.

India still has a large installed base of users who historically relied on 2G services, particularly for voice and basic connectivity.

Moving those users to 4G or 5G smartphones can increase data consumption and potentially move customers into higher-value plans.

Centrum expects Airtel’s ARPU growth to be supported by continued 2G-to-4G/5G migration and postpaid additions. It also expects Jio to benefit from continued 5G adoption.

The transition creates a long-term opportunity because mobile data consumption can increase substantially once users move from basic voice-centric plans to smartphones and higher-speed networks.

Home broadband adds another growth layer

Mobile services are not the only source of growth for India’s major telecom operators.

Both Jio and Airtel are expanding fixed broadband and 5G fixed wireless access (FWA).

FWA uses wireless networks to provide broadband connectivity to homes and businesses without requiring a traditional fibre connection directly to every premises.

This can accelerate broadband expansion in locations where fibre deployment is expensive or slow.

Centrum expects strong traction in 5G FWA and fixed broadband for both Jio and Airtel, noting that penetration in the segment remains relatively low.

For the operators, this creates an opportunity to increase revenue from households that already use their mobile networks.

Airtel expected to deliver double-digit growth

Elara expects Airtel’s consolidated revenue to increase around 3.1% sequentially in Q2 FY27.

The growth is expected to be supported by India mobile revenue as well as continued expansion in Airtel’s homes and Africa businesses.

The brokerage expects double-digit topline and EBITDA growth for Airtel and Jio.

That is important because the telecom sector is gradually moving from a heavy investment phase toward a period in which existing infrastructure can generate greater returns.

Lower incremental capex combined with higher ARPU can improve cash generation.

Jio’s IPO adds another layer to the quarter

Jio’s operating performance has an additional significance because Reliance Industries is preparing to take Jio Platforms public.

Elara noted that Jio’s potential IPO valuation could influence near-term investor sentiment toward the telecom sector. Media reports cited by the brokerage have indicated a possible valuation of ₹13–15 lakh crore, although the final valuation and listing terms remain subject to the company’s formal IPO process.

That makes metrics such as subscriber growth and ARPU more important than they would normally be.

Investors evaluating Jio’s valuation will likely examine whether the company’s huge subscriber base can generate increasingly strong cash flows.

A higher ARPU, stable customer retention and continued broadband growth could strengthen that argument.

Airtel’s valuation story is different

Airtel does not have the same imminent IPO catalyst, but it is benefiting from the same structural telecom trends.

The company’s ARPU is already higher than Jio’s, and analysts increasingly view Airtel as an ARPU and cash-flow growth story.

A separate June 2026 Nomura analysis described Airtel as an “ARPU compounder” and highlighted tariff increases, premium users, Airtel Business, homes, Africa, Airtel Money and data centres as potential growth engines.

This means Airtel’s investment case increasingly extends beyond its Indian mobile subscriber base.

Its Africa operations and enterprise businesses provide additional sources of growth, while the Indian telecom operation provides a relatively predictable recurring revenue base.

Tariff hikes remain the industry’s biggest potential catalyst

The next major variable for the sector is another round of tariff increases.

Indian telecom operators have repeatedly indicated that tariffs need to rise to support the industry’s long-term investment requirements.

A recent Centrum report expects another 12–15% tariff increase over the next four to five months, although the timing remains uncertain.

If implemented, a tariff increase could have a much larger effect on ARPU than subscriber growth alone.

However, operators need to balance higher prices against customer churn.

The experience of previous tariff increases suggests that customers can absorb moderate price increases, but aggressive increases may encourage some users to downgrade, reduce secondary SIM usage or switch operators.

That makes the timing and structure of any future tariff increase crucial.

India’s telecom market is becoming a three-player battle

The industry’s competitive structure has changed dramatically over the past decade.

Jio’s entry disrupted the market, forcing incumbents to invest heavily in networks and reconsider pricing.

Today, Airtel and Jio have emerged as the strongest private operators, while Vodafone Idea is attempting to rebuild its network and financial position.

The latest subscriber estimates reinforce that consolidation.

If Jio and Airtel continue gaining customers while also raising ARPU, their scale advantages could become increasingly difficult for smaller competitors to overcome.

For consumers, that could eventually mean fewer price-based promotions and greater emphasis on service quality, network performance and bundled products.

What investors should watch next

The most important numbers when Airtel and Jio report their September-quarter results will not simply be total subscriber additions.

Investors will likely focus on:

1. ARPU: Whether monetisation continues to improve.
2. Subscriber churn: Whether higher-value plans lead to customer losses.
3. 4G/5G migration: How quickly lower-value users upgrade.
4. Home broadband: Growth in fibre and 5G FWA.
5. Tariff outlook: Management commentary on the next price increase.
6. Capex: Whether spending intensity continues to moderate.
7. Jio IPO: Valuation expectations and formal issue details.
8. Vodafone Idea: Whether its improving subscriber trend can continue.

The combination of these factors will provide a clearer picture of the industry’s earnings trajectory than subscriber additions alone.

The Bigger Picture

The September quarter is shaping up as another step in India’s telecom industry’s transition from subscriber acquisition to monetisation. Jio and Airtel are expected to keep adding customers, but the more important story is whether they can consistently increase ARPU while keeping churn under control.

For Jio, the upcoming IPO makes operating performance particularly important because investors will be assessing whether its enormous customer base can justify a premium valuation. For Airtel, the story is increasingly about converting its strong ARPU position, network investments and multiple businesses into sustained cash-flow growth. If tariff increases arrive as expected, both operators could enter a stronger earnings cycle, although the impact on customers and competition will need to be watched closely.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many subscribers are Airtel and Jio expected to add in Q2 FY27?

Elara Securities expects Airtel to add around 4.1 million mobile subscribers and Jio around 7.2 million during the September quarter. Another brokerage, Centrum, has estimated roughly 3 million additions for Airtel and 8 million for Jio, showing that forecasts vary.

What is Airtel’s expected ARPU in Q2 FY27?

Elara estimates Airtel’s ARPU at ₹267, up 1.2% sequentially and 4.5% year over year.

What is Jio’s expected ARPU?

Elara expects Jio’s ARPU to rise to approximately ₹218, up 1% sequentially and 3% year over year.

Are Airtel and Jio likely to raise tariffs again?

Analysts expect another industry-wide tariff increase, with Centrum estimating a possible 12–15% hike within four to five months. However, the exact timing and size have not been confirmed by the operators.

Looking Ahead

The September quarter should provide an important test of whether India’s telecom recovery is becoming structurally stronger. Subscriber gains, rising ARPU, continued 5G migration and broadband expansion are creating multiple growth levers for Airtel and Jio, while Vodafone Idea’s improving customer trend will determine whether the market can remain meaningfully competitive.

The bigger catalyst could come from pricing. If operators succeed in implementing another tariff increase without triggering significant churn, ARPU and cash generation could rise sharply. For Jio, those improvements would also feed directly into the narrative around its planned public listing, while Airtel could further strengthen its position as India’s premium telecom operator.