Anthropic could receive a speculative-grade, or “junk,” credit rating from major credit rating agencies even after its planned initial public offering, according to a Financial Times report. Blackstone, a major investor in the financing of Anthropic’s AI chips, has reportedly warned investors that the company is unlikely to achieve investment-grade status immediately after listing.
The assessment marks a shift from Blackstone’s earlier expectation that Anthropic could secure an investment-grade rating before the end of 2026. The latest expectation is a rating in the BB range, which is near the top of the speculative-grade category but remains below investment grade. Anthropic’s IPO could take place as soon as November 2026, according to reports.
Key Takeaways
- Blackstone reportedly expects Anthropic to receive a high speculative-grade credit rating after its IPO.
- The likely rating range is BB or above, rather than investment grade.
- The assessment reverses Blackstone’s earlier expectation of an investment-grade rating.
- Anthropic is linked to a $63 billion semiconductor financing arrangement called Project North Star.
- Blackstone reportedly invested $9 billion in the deal’s junior debt, which carries a yield above 10%.
- Anthropic has outlined plans to spend more than $800 billion on computing infrastructure through 2045.
- A junk rating could make future borrowing more expensive and restrict access to certain institutional lenders.
Blackstone Changes Its Expectations for Anthropic
According to the Financial Times, Blackstone has told investors that Anthropic may struggle to obtain an investment-grade credit rating immediately after its anticipated IPO.
The investment firm had previously expected the Claude developer to achieve investment-grade status before the end of 2026. It has reportedly revised that assessment following preliminary feedback from major credit rating agencies.
Blackstone now expects Anthropic to receive a rating in the BB range or higher within the speculative-grade category.
This is not an official rating decision by S&P Global Ratings, Moody’s or Fitch. It is Blackstone’s reported expectation based on preliminary guidance from the agencies.
The distinction matters because Anthropic’s post-IPO credit rating will influence how easily it can borrow money to finance its expanding computing requirements.
What Does a High Junk Credit Rating Mean?
Credit rating agencies assess a company’s ability to repay its debt and meet other financial obligations.
Their ratings help lenders and investors understand the risk associated with providing financing. Broadly, ratings are divided into two categories: investment grade and speculative grade.
| Credit rating category | Meaning |
|---|---|
| AAA to BBB- | Investment grade |
| BB+ to BB- | Speculative grade |
| B+ to B- | Speculative grade |
| CCC and below | Higher credit risk |
A BB+ rating is the highest level within the speculative-grade category, sitting just one notch below the investment-grade threshold.
A high junk rating does not mean a company is about to default. It indicates that lenders consider its credit risk higher than that of investment-grade borrowers.
For Anthropic, receiving a BB-range rating could mean higher financing costs and a smaller pool of potential investors for certain debt offerings.
The $63 Billion Project North Star Financing Deal
The credit-rating debate is closely connected to Anthropic’s growing infrastructure requirements.
Wall Street banks have been involved in a $63 billion semiconductor financing arrangement known as Project North Star. The deal supports Anthropic’s access to computing capacity powered by Google’s chips, with a reported capacity of approximately 1.5 gigawatts.
The financing is structured in two broad parts:
| Financing component | Amount | Structure |
|---|---|---|
| Senior debt | More than $42 billion | Guaranteed by Broadcom |
| Junior debt | $18 billion | Backed by Anthropic’s lease payments |
| Total financing | About $63 billion | Project North Star |
The senior debt benefits from Broadcom’s guarantee, reducing lenders’ direct exposure to Anthropic’s credit risk.
The junior debt is different. Its repayment depends more directly on Anthropic’s ability to meet its lease obligations. Junior creditors also rank behind senior creditors in the repayment structure.
Blackstone reportedly invested $9 billion in the junior debt, seeking a yield of more than 10%.
That investment makes the rating outlook particularly relevant to Blackstone and other lenders participating in the arrangement.
Why an Investment-Grade Rating Matters
Investment-grade ratings can help companies access a wider range of institutional investors and borrow at more favourable interest rates.
Many pension funds, insurance companies and other large financial institutions face restrictions on how much speculative-grade debt they can hold.
If Anthropic receives a BB-range rating after its IPO, it could face several challenges:
- Higher borrowing costs: Investors may demand higher interest rates to compensate for additional credit risk.
- Smaller investor pool: Some pension funds and insurance companies may face restrictions on buying its debt.
- More complicated financing: Large infrastructure projects could require guarantees from financially stronger companies.
- Greater dependence on partners: Creditworthy suppliers and financial institutions could become more important to securing affordable funding.
These potential consequences do not mean Anthropic will be unable to raise money. Companies with speculative-grade ratings can still borrow, issue bonds and attract institutional investors.
However, the terms and cost of that financing may be less favourable.
Anthropic’s $800 Billion Infrastructure Ambition
Anthropic’s funding requirements are enormous because the company is expanding its AI computing infrastructure to support Claude and its other AI products.
In its reported IPO disclosures, the company outlined plans to spend more than $800 billion on computing infrastructure through 2045.
This includes the computing resources needed to train increasingly capable models and operate AI services for businesses and individual users.
Anthropic has also been securing large infrastructure arrangements with technology companies, including Google, Amazon and Microsoft.
The scale of these commitments has made access to affordable capital an important part of its long-term strategy.
A strong credit rating would help Anthropic borrow more cheaply. A speculative-grade rating could complicate that strategy, particularly if infrastructure spending continues to increase faster than cash generation.
Anthropic’s IPO Could Change Its Financing Position
Anthropic’s anticipated IPO could improve its access to capital by allowing it to raise money directly from public-market investors.
However, an IPO does not automatically make a company investment grade.
Credit agencies assess factors such as profitability, cash generation, debt obligations, financial flexibility and the ability to meet future commitments. A public listing can improve financial transparency, but it does not eliminate the risks associated with large infrastructure investments.
The Financial Times report also indicates that Blackstone’s revised assessment is based on preliminary feedback, rather than final post-IPO ratings.
Anthropic’s actual credit position will depend on its financial disclosures, capital structure and the assessments made by individual rating agencies.
The Bigger Picture
The development highlights an important financial challenge facing the AI industry. Companies are committing enormous amounts of capital to data centres, specialised chips, electricity and computing capacity. These investments are intended to support future growth, but they also create substantial financing requirements.
Anthropic’s situation illustrates the difference between attracting equity investors and securing affordable debt. An IPO could bring in significant capital and increase public visibility, but lenders will continue to evaluate the company’s ability to meet its financial commitments.
Looking Ahead
Investors will watch Anthropic’s IPO disclosures, the final terms of its financing arrangements and the credit assessments issued by major rating agencies. Whether the company can secure investment-grade status will depend on its financial performance and the risks associated with its long-term infrastructure commitments.
For Anthropic, the challenge is not simply raising enough money to compete in AI. It must also demonstrate that its business can support the enormous cost of computing infrastructure without relying indefinitely on expensive borrowing and financial guarantees from partners.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What credit rating is Anthropic expected to receive after its IPO?
Blackstone reportedly expects Anthropic to receive a rating in the BB range or above within the speculative-grade category. This is commonly described as a high junk rating.
2. What does a high junk rating mean?
A high junk rating indicates that a company has a higher credit risk than investment-grade borrowers. BB+ is the highest speculative-grade rating, one notch below investment grade.
3. Has S&P or Moody’s officially downgraded Anthropic?
No. The report describes Blackstone’s expectations based on preliminary feedback from major rating agencies. It does not announce a final rating decision by S&P, Moody’s or Fitch.
4. What is Project North Star?
Project North Star is a reported $63 billion semiconductor financing arrangement supporting Anthropic’s access to Google-powered computing capacity.
5. How much did Blackstone invest in Anthropic’s financing deal?
Blackstone reportedly invested $9 billion in the $18 billion junior-debt portion of Project North Star, seeking a yield above 10%.
6. Why does Anthropic need an investment-grade rating?
An investment-grade rating could help Anthropic borrow at lower interest rates and access a wider pool of institutional investors, including pension funds and insurance companies.
7. When could Anthropic go public?
Reports suggest its IPO could take place as soon as November 2026. The exact timing remains subject to the company’s plans and market conditions.
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