Apple’s iPhone shipments are expected to decline by approximately 2.1% in 2026, according to Counterpoint Research, as higher component costs, possible price increases and changes to Apple’s product-launch schedule create pressure on demand. The forecast nevertheless places Apple among the more resilient major smartphone brands during a year when the global handset market is expected to contract sharply.
Counterpoint expects Apple’s shipments to return to growth in 2027, with an estimated increase of about 2.8%. The company is also expected to launch its first foldable iPhone in the third quarter of 2026, potentially adding a new premium category to its lineup, although analysts expect the device’s initial volumes to remain relatively limited.
Apple Faces A Mild Shipment Decline In 2026
The expected 2.1% decline is relatively modest compared with the broader smartphone market. Counterpoint forecasts global smartphone shipments to fall by approximately 14.3% in 2026, making Apple’s projected decline significantly smaller than the industry contraction.
The divergence highlights Apple’s position in the premium smartphone segment. The company has greater pricing power, strong customer loyalty and better access to critical components than many competitors, allowing it to absorb some of the pressures affecting the wider market.
Apple Vs Global Smartphone Market
| Metric | 2026 Forecast |
|---|---|
| Apple shipment growth | -2.1% |
| Global smartphone shipment growth | -14.3% |
| Apple 2027 shipment growth | +2.8% |
| Samsung shipment growth | +0.8% |
| Global recovery forecast | 2028 |
| Global smartphone growth in 2028 | About +4.8% |
Apple’s expected decline is therefore roughly one-seventh of the projected global market contraction. The figures suggest the company could gain relative market strength even while shipping fewer iPhones.
Rising Component Costs Put Pressure On Smartphone Makers
One of the biggest challenges facing the smartphone industry is the sharp increase in memory and semiconductor costs.
Memory shortages have pushed up the bill of materials for smartphones, particularly affecting lower-priced models where components represent a larger share of the total manufacturing cost. Counterpoint expects the impact to extend across the market, although premium manufacturers are generally better positioned to absorb or pass through higher costs.
Apple’s premium positioning gives it more flexibility than manufacturers competing primarily in lower price segments. However, higher production costs could still translate into higher retail prices, potentially encouraging consumers to delay upgrades.
Smartphone Cost Pressure
RISING COMPONENT COSTS
│
▼
Higher Memory & Chip Prices
│
▼
Higher Manufacturing Costs
│
┌────┴────┐
▼ ▼
Higher Prices Lower Margins
│ │
▼ ▼
Upgrade Delays Lower Shipments
Counterpoint previously estimated that DRAM price increases had raised bill-of-material costs by around 25% for low-end smartphones, 15% for mid-range devices and 10% for premium smartphones.
iPhone 18 Pricing Could Affect Demand
The upcoming iPhone 18 product cycle is another factor behind Apple’s shipment forecast.
Counterpoint expects possible higher launch pricing for the iPhone 18 series. Higher prices could affect quarterly demand, particularly if consumers decide to extend the replacement cycle rather than purchase a new device immediately.
The timing of product launches could also influence shipment figures. Changes in the introduction schedule for Pro and base iPhone models across the 2026 and 2027 cycles could create fluctuations in Apple’s quarterly shipments and channel inventory.
Factors Influencing Apple’s 2026 Shipments
| Factor | Potential Impact |
|---|---|
| Higher component costs | Raises manufacturing expenses |
| Potential iPhone 18 price increases | Could weaken upgrade demand |
| Product-launch timing changes | May shift quarterly shipments |
| Premium positioning | Provides greater pricing flexibility |
| Customer loyalty | Supports replacement demand |
| Component access | Reduces supply-side risk |
| Foldable iPhone launch | Adds a new premium category |
This means the 2.1% decline should not necessarily be interpreted as a collapse in iPhone demand. Instead, it reflects a combination of industry-wide cost pressures and Apple’s product-cycle dynamics.
Apple’s First Foldable iPhone Could Change The Premium Market
One of the most significant developments for Apple in 2026 is its expected entry into the foldable smartphone market.
Counterpoint expects Apple to launch its first foldable iPhone in the third quarter of 2026. The research firm forecasts high-single-digit million-unit shipments for the device, which would give Apple a meaningful presence in the foldable segment but would not be enough to materially change its overall annual smartphone shipment trajectory.
The significance of the product may therefore extend beyond its first-year shipment numbers.
Expected Foldable iPhone Impact
Q3 2026
First Foldable iPhone
│
▼
High-Single-Digit Million
Initial Shipments
│
▼
Limited Impact On
2026 Total Shipments
│
▼
Potential New Premium
Growth Category
│
▼
Greater Strategic Impact
From 2027 Onward
A successful foldable launch could give Apple another premium product category while helping the company compete with Samsung and Chinese manufacturers that have already established foldable devices.
Apple Could Recover In 2027
Counterpoint expects Apple’s shipments to return to growth in 2027, with approximately 2.8% year-over-year growth.
The expected recovery could be supported by delayed consumer purchases, continued premium demand and Apple’s expanding product portfolio. The first full-year contribution from a foldable iPhone could also become more meaningful if the company expands production and availability.
The expected 2027 growth would nevertheless be moderate compared with Apple’s historical growth periods.
Apple’s Expected Shipment Trajectory
2026 -2.1%
████████████████████
2027 +2.8%
████████████████████████
2028 Global Market Recovery
█████████████████████████████
The trajectory suggests that Apple is expected to move through the current smartphone downturn with relatively limited volume losses before returning to expansion.
Samsung Could Become The Global Leader
Apple’s comparatively resilient performance comes as Samsung is expected to grow slightly in 2026.
Counterpoint forecasts Samsung’s smartphone shipments to increase approximately 0.8%, allowing the South Korean company to regain the global smartphone leadership position.
Samsung’s advantages include its broad geographic footprint, vertically integrated component capabilities, extensive product portfolio and stronger access to memory and semiconductor supplies.
Apple Vs Samsung In 2026
| Company | Shipment Forecast | Key Advantage |
|---|---|---|
| Samsung | +0.8% | Supply chain and broad portfolio |
| Apple | -2.1% | Premium positioning and customer loyalty |
| Global market | -14.3% | — |
Although Apple’s shipments are expected to fall slightly more than Samsung’s, both companies are projected to outperform the overall smartphone market by a substantial margin.
Chinese Smartphone Brands Face Greater Pressure
The market downturn is expected to be much harder on several Chinese smartphone manufacturers.
Counterpoint forecasts shipment declines of approximately 15% to 34% across several major Chinese OEMs. These companies have greater exposure to price-sensitive consumers and mid-range smartphones, where higher memory and chipset costs can have a larger impact on profitability.
Manufacturers may respond by reducing memory configurations, using older chip platforms, increasing prices or discontinuing products that no longer meet profitability targets.
Expected 2026 Competitive Landscape
Samsung +0.8% █
Apple -2.1% ██
Chinese OEMs -15% to -34% ███████████████
Global Market -14.3% ██████████████
This creates an opportunity for Apple to increase its relative share even without growing unit shipments.
Premium Smartphones Are More Resilient
The current downturn is expected to affect lower-priced smartphones more severely than premium devices.
Higher component costs represent a larger percentage of the selling price of affordable phones, making it more difficult for manufacturers to maintain margins without increasing retail prices.
Premium manufacturers such as Apple have more room to absorb cost increases or pass some of them on to consumers.
This premiumization trend could therefore accelerate during the downturn, with financially stronger companies gaining share as weaker competitors struggle to maintain affordable products.
Apple’s China Performance Offers Another Growth Signal
Apple has recently demonstrated resilience in China despite the broader weakness in the country’s smartphone market.
IDC reported that China’s smartphone shipments fell 4.3% year over year in Q2 2026, but Apple’s shipments increased 24.4%, lifting its market share to 18.1% from 13.9% a year earlier. Huawei also grew strongly, while several major Android brands recorded double-digit declines.
China Smartphone Market — Q2 2026
| Company | Q2 2026 Market Share | YoY Shipment Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Huawei | 22.6% | +19.4% |
| Apple | 18.1% | +24.4% |
| OPPO | 16.0% | -9.7% |
| vivo | 16.0% | -11.4% |
| Xiaomi | 12.4% | -21.7% |
| Honor | 11.3% | -9.5% |
| Total market | — | -4.3% |
Apple’s performance in China demonstrates why its overall 2026 forecast is considerably more resilient than the global smartphone market.
India’s Smartphone Market Also Faces Pressure
India is another important market for Apple’s expansion, but the company is facing supply and affordability challenges.
IDC India estimated that overall smartphone shipments in India fell 11.1% year over year in Q2 2026, while Apple shipments were roughly flat to down 1%. Analysts attributed weaker iPhone shipment numbers partly to supply constraints rather than a major collapse in consumer interest.
The Indian market is particularly important to Apple because the company has been increasing local manufacturing and expanding its retail and distribution footprint.
Global Smartphone Market Could Recover In 2028
The current downturn is expected to persist beyond 2026, although analysts see the possibility of a stronger recovery later in the decade.
Counterpoint expects global smartphone shipments to recover as component availability improves and retail pricing stabilizes. NewsBytes, citing the latest Counterpoint forecast, reports that global shipments could grow about 4.8% in 2028.
The recovery could benefit manufacturers that survive the current downturn with strong balance sheets, secure component supplies and loyal customer bases.
The Bigger Picture
Apple’s projected 2.1% shipment decline in 2026 looks modest against an expected 14.3% contraction in the global smartphone market. The forecast suggests that Apple’s premium positioning, customer loyalty and access to critical components are helping it withstand the industry’s memory and semiconductor cost crisis better than many competitors.
The bigger opportunity could come from Apple’s product strategy. The expected foldable iPhone launch gives the company a new premium category, while strong recent performance in China and relative resilience in India demonstrate that demand for Apple’s devices remains substantial even during a difficult market cycle. If component costs stabilize and delayed upgrades return, Apple could be positioned for a gradual recovery beginning in 2027.
Looking Ahead
Apple’s immediate challenge will be managing higher component costs while maintaining demand for the iPhone 18 lineup. Possible price increases and changes in the timing of Pro and base models could influence quarterly shipments, while the expected foldable iPhone launch will test Apple’s ability to enter a category already dominated by competitors. The company is nevertheless expected to remain considerably more resilient than many smartphone manufacturers during the current downturn.
The longer-term outlook is more favorable, with Counterpoint forecasting approximately 2.8% shipment growth for Apple in 2027. A broader industry recovery is expected around 2028 as supply conditions improve and delayed replacement demand returns. Apple’s ability to maintain premium pricing, secure components and successfully expand beyond the traditional iPhone form factor will determine whether the company can turn its current resilience into renewed shipment growth.
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