Apple could increase its smartphone shipments in 2026 even as the global smartphone market faces one of its sharpest contractions in years. Analysts Jeff Pu and Henry Huang of GF Securities expect Apple to ship approximately 257 million iPhones during the year, representing a 4% increase from 2025. The forecast comes despite expectations that worldwide smartphone shipments will decline by more than 14%, as rising memory-chip costs, supply constraints and affordability concerns weigh on the industry.
The projection would put Apple ahead of Samsung, which is expected to ship approximately 241 million smartphones in 2026. Apple’s resilience reflects its strong premium-market position, customer loyalty and demand for its latest devices. However, the outlook is not without risks. Preliminary third-quarter industry data showed that Apple’s shipments also declined year-on-year during the period, even as its market share increased. The difference highlights an important distinction: Apple may outperform competitors over the full year without being immune to the slowdown affecting the wider market.
Key Takeaways
- Apple shipment forecast: GF Securities analysts project 257 million iPhones in 2026, up 4% year-on-year.
- Global market pressure: Smartphone shipments are forecast to decline by more than 14% this year.
- Samsung comparison: Samsung is expected to ship around 241 million smartphones, according to the same analyst forecast.
- Premium-market advantage: Apple’s position in the higher-priced segment may help it withstand cost pressures better than budget-focused competitors.
- Memory shortage: Higher memory-chip prices and limited component availability are raising manufacturing costs.
- Quarterly caution: Apple’s shipments declined year-on-year in the third quarter, despite its market share reaching 22%.
- Forecast uncertainty: Shipment estimates depend on demand, pricing, product-launch timing and component availability.
Apple Could Gain Ground as the Smartphone Market Shrinks
The projected increase in Apple’s shipments stands out because the broader smartphone industry is facing a difficult year.
Counterpoint Research has forecast a global smartphone market contraction of approximately 14.3% in 2026, while other industry estimates have pointed to an even steeper decline. Higher memory prices, limited supplies of components and weaker purchasing power are forcing manufacturers to reconsider production plans and product portfolios.
Apple’s projected 4% growth would contrast with the expected declines affecting many competing brands. It could also help the company expand its share of the global market, even if its own growth remains modest compared with earlier periods of rapid smartphone adoption.
| Metric | 2026 outlook |
|---|---|
| Apple smartphone shipments | 257 million units |
| Apple year-on-year growth | 4% |
| Samsung smartphone shipments | 241 million units |
| Expected global smartphone market decline | More than 14% |
| Apple market share in Q3 2026 | 22% |
The shipment figures are analyst forecasts cited by NewsBytes, while the 22% market-share figure comes from preliminary third-quarter data reported by Counterpoint Research. They refer to different measures and time periods.
If Apple’s full-year shipment forecast materialises, it would indicate that the company is capturing demand more effectively than much of the industry. However, the forecast is not a confirmed final shipment result, and actual volumes may change as the year progresses.
Why Apple Is More Resilient Than Many Rivals
Apple’s business model differs from that of manufacturers that rely heavily on low-cost and entry-level smartphones.
The company concentrates on premium devices, supported by its hardware, software and services ecosystem. Customers who own an iPhone may also use products such as Macs, Apple Watches, AirPods and iCloud services. This ecosystem can strengthen customer retention and encourage users to remain with the brand when upgrading their phones.
Premium positioning can also provide some pricing flexibility. Customers purchasing expensive smartphones may be less sensitive to a moderate price increase than buyers shopping for devices near the lower end of the market.
That does not mean premium demand is immune to economic pressure. If prices rise sharply, consumers may delay upgrades or retain their existing phones for longer. Apple’s ability to maintain demand therefore depends on product appeal, financing options, trade-in programmes and the perceived value of its devices.
The company also benefits from a broad international distribution network and substantial purchasing power. Its scale can help it negotiate supply agreements and secure components when availability becomes constrained.
These advantages may help explain why analysts expect Apple to perform better than the overall market. They do not guarantee growth, particularly when component costs and consumer affordability are moving in the wrong direction.
The Memory-Chip Shortage Is Reshaping the Smartphone Industry
A major challenge for smartphone manufacturers in 2026 is the rising cost of memory components.
Smartphones require memory to run operating systems, store data and support increasingly demanding applications. Modern devices also need memory capacity for advanced photography, multitasking, on-device artificial intelligence and other computational features.
At the same time, demand from AI infrastructure projects has increased pressure on parts of the semiconductor supply chain. Data centres require large quantities of advanced memory, and manufacturers are allocating capacity across competing markets.
The resulting price increases can make smartphones more expensive to manufacture. Companies must then decide whether to absorb those costs, raise retail prices, reduce product specifications or lower production volumes.
The pressure is particularly severe for budget smartphone makers. Low-cost devices operate on tighter margins, leaving less room to absorb increases in component prices. Raising prices can also make those products less attractive to customers with limited spending power.
Apple has more room to manage the situation because of its premium positioning, but it is not insulated from the shortage. Its flagship smartphones use advanced components, and rising memory costs can affect profitability even when shipment volumes remain relatively strong.
Why Premium Smartphones Are Holding Up Better
The smartphone market is increasingly divided between consumers who can afford premium devices and those who are struggling with higher prices.
Some buyers continue to prioritise high-end smartphones because they expect to use them for several years. Better cameras, longer software support, advanced processors and AI-related features can make premium devices more attractive to these customers.
For other consumers, however, higher prices make replacing a working phone less appealing. They may postpone an upgrade, buy a refurbished handset or choose a less expensive model.
This difference in behaviour helps explain why premium-oriented manufacturers can outperform companies with greater exposure to entry-level devices.
Apple’s ecosystem also encourages repeat purchases. Customers who have invested in apps, services and connected devices may face greater switching costs when considering another smartphone platform.
Nevertheless, the premium market is not guaranteed to grow during an industry downturn. A prolonged economic slowdown, expensive new models or weaker-than-expected product demand could still reduce sales.
Apple’s Market Share Rose Even as Shipments Fell
Apple’s third-quarter performance demonstrates why shipment growth and market-share gains must be considered separately.
Preliminary Counterpoint Research data showed that global smartphone shipments fell 20% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, reaching their lowest third-quarter level since 2012. Apple accounted for approximately 22% of shipments, a record share for the company in a third quarter, compared with Samsung’s 23%.
However, Apple’s own shipments also declined during the period. Counterpoint attributed part of the change to Apple’s launch schedule: the company did not introduce a standard iPhone 18 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro models in September, resulting in a smaller launch-month supply to retailers than the previous year’s full iPhone 17 lineup.
This is an important factor when interpreting quarterly numbers. Shipment figures measure devices delivered into distribution channels, not necessarily the number sold directly to final customers during the same period.
A change in launch timing can shift shipments between quarters. It can therefore affect short-term comparisons without fully reflecting the underlying strength of consumer demand.
The strong market-share figure suggests Apple performed relatively well against a shrinking industry, but it should not be interpreted as evidence that shipments increased in every period.
Samsung and Chinese Smartphone Makers Face Different Challenges
Samsung is expected to ship around 241 million smartphones in 2026 under the GF Securities forecast. Its broad product portfolio spans premium flagship devices, foldables and mid-range models, giving it exposure to several customer segments.
Its scale and supplier relationships may help it manage component shortages. However, Samsung also faces pressure from higher memory prices and weaker demand for lower-priced devices.
Chinese manufacturers such as Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo have substantial exposure to price-sensitive markets. In those segments, increases in production costs can be particularly difficult to pass on to customers.
Some manufacturers may respond by reducing their entry-level portfolios, prioritising profitable models or withdrawing from selected markets. Such decisions can help protect margins, but they may also reduce total shipments.
Apple’s expected growth would therefore reflect more than demand for its products alone. It would also reflect differences in product mix, supply access, pricing power and manufacturers’ willingness to prioritise volume over profitability.
What the Forecast Means for Apple’s Business
Higher shipment volumes can support revenue, but the financial effect depends on the average selling price, product mix, production costs and demand for services.
If Apple ships more devices while selling a greater proportion of premium models, revenue could benefit even if the broader market contracts. Its installed base also supports services such as subscriptions, digital payments, cloud storage and app-related spending.
However, shipments are not the same as revenue or profit. Devices delivered to retailers may remain in inventory, while higher component costs can reduce the margin earned on each handset.
The company must also balance pricing against affordability. Raising prices can help offset memory costs but could discourage upgrades, particularly in markets where consumers are already facing higher living expenses.
Investors will therefore need to consider several indicators together: shipment volumes, sales to end users, average selling prices, gross margins, channel inventory and demand for services.
A forecast of 257 million shipments is an important measure of expected scale, but it is not sufficient on its own to establish how profitable Apple’s smartphone business will be in 2026.
The Bigger Picture
Apple’s projected shipment growth illustrates how a manufacturer can gain ground even when the industry is contracting. Its premium positioning, loyal customer base and product ecosystem may provide advantages as higher memory costs pressure smartphone makers, particularly those dependent on budget devices. The forecast also highlights how product-launch timing can influence quarterly comparisons.
Yet the market remains under strain. Consumers are delaying upgrades, manufacturers are reassessing product portfolios and component shortages are pushing costs higher. Apple’s ability to outperform competitors will depend on whether demand for its devices remains resilient and whether it can protect margins without pricing too many customers out of the market.
Looking Ahead
The next indicators to watch are Apple’s sales following its latest product launches, the availability and price of memory components, and updated forecasts from industry research firms. If the projected 257 million shipments are achieved, Apple would demonstrate relative resilience in a difficult market, but the final figures will depend on demand and supply conditions through the end of the year.
For the wider industry, the recovery may take longer. Manufacturers will need to balance product innovation against affordability, while component suppliers determine how quickly additional memory capacity becomes available. Until cost pressures ease, premium devices may continue to account for a greater share of the market even as total smartphone shipments decline.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. How many iPhones could Apple ship in 2026?
GF Securities analysts Jeff Pu and Henry Huang forecast approximately 257 million iPhone shipments in 2026, representing 4% growth year-on-year. This remains a forecast rather than a confirmed final result.
2. Why could Apple grow while the smartphone market declines?
Apple’s premium positioning, customer loyalty, ecosystem and access to components may help it withstand market pressure better than competitors with greater exposure to budget smartphones.
3. How much could the global smartphone market decline in 2026?
Counterpoint Research has forecast a decline of approximately 14.3% for the full year. Other estimates have projected a steeper contraction, reflecting uncertainty around component costs and demand.
4. Is Apple’s smartphone market share increasing?
Preliminary data showed Apple reaching a third-quarter market share of 22% in 2026, a record for the company in that quarter. Its shipments nevertheless declined year-on-year during the period.
5. Why are smartphone prices rising?
Higher memory-chip prices, component shortages and increased demand from AI data centres are raising manufacturing costs. Companies may pass some of those costs to consumers.
6. Could Apple overtake Samsung in annual smartphone shipments?
The GF Securities forecast puts Apple at 257 million units and Samsung at 241 million. If those estimates materialise, Apple would lead in annual shipments under that forecast, but the outcome is not yet confirme
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