The rise in import costs comes at a time when households typically increase purchases of almonds, cashews, pistachios, raisins and dates for gifting, sweets and festive meals. Although the overall seasonal increase remains relatively modest compared with some previous years, the sharper jump in import values for selected products suggests that supply-side pressures are building beneath the headline figure.
The impact extends beyond household shopping. Retailers, sweet manufacturers and corporate gifting businesses must decide whether to absorb higher costs, increase prices or reduce the quantity of dry fruits included in festive packs. If shipping disruptions and supply constraints continue, consumers could face further pressure even after the peak Diwali buying period.
Key Takeaways
- Dry-fruit prices have risen around 2% during the 2026 festive season, according to Moneycontrol’s analysis.
- Raisin import unit values rose 20.4% and soft-date import unit values increased 23.5% year on year during April–August 2026.
- The West Asia conflict has contributed to shipping disruptions, higher freight charges and supply uncertainty.
- Prices vary by product: almond import values rose 4%, while in-shell walnut import values declined 2.2%.
- Retail inflation remained elevated for dates, raisins and other nuts in September 2026.
- Consumers and businesses may respond by buying smaller quantities, comparing varieties or choosing less expensive alternatives.
How Much Have Dry-Fruit Prices Increased?
Moneycontrol’s analysis of festive-season price movements since 2015 found that dry-fruit prices typically increase around Diwali. The average increase during the festive period over the past 12 years was 1.6%, although the annual movement varied.
In 2026, the increase stands at around 2%, exceeding that historical average. However, it remains below the 3% rise recorded in 2024 and the 2.2% increases reported in both 2017 and 2018.
The important distinction is between retail prices and import costs. The 2% figure reflects the broader festive-season price movement, whereas import unit values measure the average value of imported goods per unit of weight. A sharp increase in import costs does not immediately translate into an equivalent increase at the retail counter.
| Indicator | Latest reported figure | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Average festive-season dry-fruit price increase | 2% | 2026 |
| Historical average festive-season increase | 1.6% | Previous 12 years |
| Raisin import unit value increase | 20.4% | April–August 2026, year on year |
| Soft-date import unit value increase | 23.5% | April–August 2026, year on year |
| Almond import unit value increase | 4% | April–August 2026, year on year |
| In-shell walnut import unit value change | -2.2% | April–August 2026, year on year |
Source: Moneycontrol.
Why the West Asia Conflict Is Making Dry Fruits Costlier
India relies on overseas suppliers for several important dry-fruit categories. Raisins, dates, almonds, pistachios and walnuts have different production regions and shipping routes, so disruptions affect each product differently.
The conflict in West Asia has increased uncertainty around transport routes and the movement of goods. Longer or disrupted shipping journeys can raise freight costs, insurance expenses and delivery times. Importers may also need to pay more to secure available supplies when shipments are delayed.
Iran and Afghanistan are important sources for some varieties of dry fruits, particularly pistachios, raisins and other products traded through regional supply networks. Disruptions affecting these suppliers or their transport routes can tighten availability in India.
Currency movements add another layer of pressure. When the rupee weakens against the US dollar, importers generally need more rupees to purchase the same dollar-priced shipment. The final cost also depends on procurement contracts, duties, logistics and the margins charged by wholesalers and retailers.
These factors do not affect every product equally. A variety sourced from a different country, or one with larger existing inventories, may experience a smaller increase than a product dependent on a disrupted supply route.
Raisins and Dates See the Sharpest Import-Cost Increases
The import data highlight raisins and soft dates as two categories facing particularly strong pressure.
According to Moneycontrol, India’s average import unit value for raisins rose from approximately $3.20 per kilogram to $3.80 per kilogram between April and August 2026 and the corresponding period a year earlier. That represents an increase of 20.4%.
Soft dates recorded an even larger percentage increase, with average import unit values rising from around $0.60 per kilogram to $0.80 per kilogram, a reported increase of 23.5%.
These figures describe average import unit values rather than the price consumers pay in shops. They can be affected by the mix of varieties, product quality, sourcing countries and shipment composition. Retail prices also reflect storage, transportation, packaging and distributor margins.
Nevertheless, the increases indicate that importers are paying more for some of the products commonly purchased during the festive season.
Retail Inflation Shows Persistent Price Pressure
Retail inflation data cited by Moneycontrol suggest that elevated import costs have coincided with sustained price pressure across several dry-fruit categories.
| Product category | Retail inflation trend |
|---|---|
| Dates | Inflation increased from 5.4% in January to 8% in September 2026 |
| Other nuts | Inflation rose from 7% in January to 9.1% in September 2026 |
| Raisins | Inflation eased from 24.9% in January to 10.4% in September 2026 |
| Cashews | Inflation increased from 2.4% in July to 4% in September 2026 |
Source: Moneycontrol.
Raisins continued to record the highest inflation among the categories listed, even though the rate eased substantially from its January level. Meanwhile, the increase in dates and other nuts indicates that price pressures have not been confined to one product.
Cashews have also seen renewed inflation in recent months, although their movement differs from that of raisins and dates. This variation reinforces the importance of comparing individual products rather than assuming all dry fruits are becoming more expensive at the same rate.
What Higher Prices Mean for Diwali Shoppers
Higher prices can change both what households buy and how much they spend. Families purchasing dry fruits for personal consumption may reduce quantities, select different grades or compare prices across retailers.
Corporate gifting businesses face a similar challenge. Companies working with fixed festive budgets can reduce the weight of gift boxes, change the mix of products or replace some expensive nuts with more affordable alternatives.
Sweet manufacturers may also face higher ingredient costs, particularly for products that use large quantities of pistachios, almonds or dates. Whether those costs translate into higher retail prices depends on competition, existing inventories, supplier contracts and customers’ willingness to pay.
Consumers can respond by comparing prices per kilogram rather than relying only on the total price of a gift pack. Checking the variety, grade, origin and packaging weight can also help distinguish a genuine price increase from differences in product quality.
The Bigger Picture
The increase in dry-fruit prices illustrates how geopolitical tensions can reach Indian consumers through supply chains. A conflict thousands of kilometres away can affect the cost of imported food products through shipping routes, freight rates, currency movements and the availability of goods from major suppliers.
The wider economic impact depends on how long these pressures persist. If transport costs ease and import supplies normalize, some of the pressure could moderate.
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