India’s retail gold sales are expected to decline 11% year-on-year in October 2026, measured by volume, despite a pickup in festive and wedding-related purchases, according to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA). Surendra Mehta, IBJA secretary, told Moneycontrol that buying had improved compared with September, but demand remained weaker than in October 2025 as elevated gold prices continued to weigh on consumers.
The outlook highlights a growing divide between the value and volume of gold purchases in India. Higher prices can keep the total amount consumers spend on jewellery elevated even when they buy fewer grams. Jewellers are responding with festive discounts, reduced making charges, old-gold exchange schemes and lighter designs. With Dhanteras, Diwali and the wedding season approaching, the coming weeks will be important for determining whether seasonal demand can narrow the year-on-year gap.
Key Takeaways
- Gold sales may fall 11%: IBJA expects October sales volumes to remain below the same month in 2025.
- Festive buying has improved: Demand is stronger than in September, but the recovery has not erased the annual decline.
- High prices remain a constraint: Consumers are buying smaller quantities or choosing lighter jewellery.
- Jewellers are offering incentives: Discounts on making charges, old-gold exchanges and gold-rate protection are among the strategies used to attract customers.
- Spending and volume may diverge: Revenue can increase even when fewer grams of gold are sold.
- Wedding demand offers support: Dhanteras, Diwali and wedding purchases could improve demand in the remainder of the festive season.
Why Gold Sales May Fall 11% in October
According to IBJA, retail gold buying has improved month-on-month, but the comparison with the previous year remains weak. Mehta said sales were expected to settle 11% below October 2025 levels in volume terms.
The association had previously estimated that gold sales were down 8% to 10% year-on-year in September. The October forecast suggests that the festive-season pickup may not be strong enough to reverse the broader weakness in physical demand.
Gold purchases in India are closely linked to festivals, weddings and cultural traditions. However, consumers must balance these occasions against household budgets, particularly when jewellery prices rise sharply.
The result is not necessarily that consumers stop buying gold altogether. Instead, they may postpone purchases, exchange old jewellery for new pieces, select lighter designs or buy fewer grams than originally planned.
Elevated Prices Continue to Affect Affordability
Gold prices remain significantly higher than during the previous year’s festive season, even after retreating from their earlier peaks.
Moneycontrol reported that domestic spot gold traded at approximately ₹1,43,447 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) on October 22, 2026. During the peak festive period in October 2025, prices had ranged between ₹1.22 lakh and ₹1.34 lakh per 10 grams.
Gold had also crossed ₹2 lakh per 10 grams at the end of January 2026 before retreating. This volatility has made it more difficult for households to decide when to purchase jewellery.
| Gold-market indicator | Reported figure |
|---|---|
| Expected October sales-volume change | -11% year-on-year |
| September sales-volume estimate | -8% to -10% year-on-year |
| Domestic spot gold on October 22, 2026 | Approximately ₹1,43,447 per 10 grams |
| October 2025 festive-period price range | ₹1.22 lakh–₹1.34 lakh per 10 grams |
| Earlier peak at the end of January 2026 | Above ₹2 lakh per 10 grams |
Sources: Moneycontrol and IBJA. Prices are indicative and can vary by benchmark, purity, location, taxes and jewellery charges.
The recent price correction has provided some relief, but gold remains expensive relative to a year earlier. That limits how much jewellery households can purchase for a fixed budget.
Festive Demand Is Improving, but Consumers Are Adapting
The outlook is not uniformly negative. The World Gold Council’s October 20 market update said seasonal demand was gaining momentum following the September price decline. Retailers were reporting improved store footfall and healthier orders as they replenished inventories for the festive and wedding period.
However, the Council also noted that elevated prices could continue to limit growth in the volume of gold purchased.
Consumers are increasingly adjusting their buying patterns to manage costs. Common approaches include:
- Choosing lightweight necklaces, earrings and bracelets.
- Buying smaller quantities of gold.
- Selecting lower-carat jewellery where appropriate.
- Exchanging old jewellery to offset the cost of new purchases.
- Using retailer payment plans or advance-purchase price protection.
- Comparing making charges and promotional offers before buying.
These changes allow households to continue participating in festivals and weddings without necessarily increasing their gold budgets.
Jewellers Offer Discounts to Attract Customers
Jewellery retailers have expanded promotional activity as they compete for customers during the festive season. Offers reported by Moneycontrol include waivers on making charges, discounts on diamond value, gold coins for purchases above specified thresholds and credit-card payment offers.
Some retailers are also offering gold-rate protection on selected purchases made with an advance payment. Old-gold exchange programmes remain another important tool, allowing customers to use the value of existing jewellery towards new purchases.
Such offers can help attract footfall, but they do not eliminate the underlying cost of gold. Making charges, taxes and product design can also affect the final bill, so consumers need to compare the complete purchase price rather than focusing on a headline discount.
The World Gold Council has reported that old-gold exchange has become an important source of demand and domestic supply. In some retail businesses, these transactions account for a substantial share of sales.
Gold Sales Value Could Rise Even as Volumes Fall
A decline in the quantity of gold sold does not automatically translate into a decline in jewellery retailers’ revenue.
When gold prices rise, a customer buying a lighter necklace may still spend as much as someone who purchased a heavier piece in an earlier year. This can support sales value even when the number of grams sold declines.
The World Gold Council reported that listed jewellery retailers recorded revenue growth of around 20% to 30% year-on-year in the July–September 2026 quarter. It also highlighted the role of store expansion, same-store growth, wedding purchases and lightweight jewellery in supporting performance.
These figures refer to listed retailers’ revenue, not the entire industry’s physical gold sales. They illustrate why retail revenue growth and gold-volume growth should be treated as separate measures.
For jewellery companies, the mix of products sold, making charges, store expansion and customer spending can all affect financial performance. For consumers, the more relevant measure may be how much jewellery they can afford within a fixed budget.
What Dhanteras, Diwali and the Wedding Season Could Mean
The next major occasions on India’s festive calendar include Dhanteras, Diwali and Bhai Dooj, followed by continued wedding-related purchases. These events traditionally support demand for jewellery, coins and other gold products.
The seasonal backdrop is encouraging, but the scale of the recovery remains uncertain. Consumers may prioritise essential wedding purchases while postponing discretionary jewellery purchases, particularly if prices become volatile again.
The World Gold Council’s October update noted that lower prices had helped seasonal demand gather pace, while gold prices remained relatively range-bound during the month. Further price movements, household affordability and retailer promotions will influence how much of this demand converts into actual purchases.
The IBJA forecast suggests that a meaningful recovery in October volumes compared with last year should not be assumed, even as stores become busier.
The Bigger Picture
India’s relationship with gold combines cultural tradition, jewellery consumption and investment demand. Festivals and weddings continue to support buying, but elevated prices are changing how consumers participate in the market.
The expected 11% decline in October sales volume highlights this adjustment. Consumers may still purchase gold, but increasingly through lighter designs, smaller quantities and old-gold exchanges. At the same time, jewellery retailers may record higher revenue because each gram costs more than it did a year earlier.
The coming festive and wedding season will reveal whether improving demand can narrow the gap with 2025. Price stability, household budgets and the effectiveness of retailer offers will be central to the outcome.
FAQs
1. Why are gold sales expected to fall 11% in October 2026?
IBJA attributes the weakness to demand remaining below year-earlier levels despite an improvement in festive buying. Elevated gold prices continue to constrain the quantity consumers can afford.
2. Are gold prices falling in India?
Gold has retreated from its earlier peak, but prices remain high compared with the previous year’s festive season. Daily prices vary by benchmark, purity and location.
3. Does lower gold sales volume mean jewellers will earn less revenue?
Not necessarily. Higher prices can increase the value of sales even if consumers purchase fewer grams. Retailer revenue is also influenced by store expansion, product mix and making charges.
4. What are jewellers doing to attract festive buyers?
Retailers are offering making-charge discounts, old-gold exchange schemes, gold-rate protection, payment offers and incentives linked to purchase value.
5. Could Dhanteras and Diwali improve gold demand?
The festivals and wedding season could support further buying. However, IBJA expects October sales volumes to remain below the year-earlier level, and the extent of any recovery remains uncertain.
Looking Ahead
India’s gold market is entering a crucial period as Dhanteras, Diwali and wedding-related purchases approach. A further improvement in store footfall and a stable price environment could support demand, but high prices may continue to limit the amount of gold households buy.
The key indicators to watch are physical sales volumes, gold prices, old-gold exchange activity and jewellers’ reported revenue. Together, these measures will help show whether the festive recovery is broad-based or mainly reflects higher prices and consumers adapting their purchases to tighter budgets.
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