Counterpoint Forecasts 3% Rise in India 4G Phone Shipments

Correction and source note (4 October 2026): The earlier headline treated a forecast as completed 2026 shipment data. Counterpoint Research published this outlook on 28 September 2026. The article has been corrected to distinguish forecasts from measured shipments and to remove unsupported phone specifications, manufacturing costs, and battery-life comparisons. The first-party source is Counterpoint Research’s India 4G smartphone forecast.

What Counterpoint forecasts

Counterpoint Research expects India’s 4G smartphone shipments to grow 3% year on year in 2026 after a reported 48% decline in 2025. That 3% is a forecast, not an observed full-year result. The research firm also forecasts 4G phones will account for 13% of total Indian smartphone shipments in 2026, up from 11% in 2025. It expects that share to reach 15% in 2027. Those future figures depend on actual consumer demand, handset pricing and supply conditions.

The research firm attributes the expected recovery partly to rising component costs. In its view, those costs are widening the price gap between 4G and 5G devices, making some 5G handsets less accessible to price-sensitive buyers. Counterpoint reports that the number of manufacturers offering 4G models in India’s ₹10,000–₹20,000 segment increased from two in 2025 to 12 in 2026 to date. This is a count of brands in a price segment; it does not by itself show that 4G sales have already risen 3% for the full year.

How to read the forecast

Shipments measure phones sent into sales channels, not necessarily devices purchased by consumers or active on mobile networks. A rising share can also occur while the broader smartphone market contracts. Counterpoint says the overall Indian smartphone market is expected to decline in 2026. Therefore, the 4G forecast is best understood as a possible shift in the mix of new phones, rather than evidence that 5G adoption has reversed.

Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak says buyers are weighing specifications against price. His assessment is that 4G may gain relevance beyond entry-level phones as component prices remain elevated. It remains an analyst outlook. It does not show that every 4G model offers a better display, camera, battery or storage than a similarly priced 5G model. Buyers should compare actual handsets and network coverage before choosing one.

What independent reports add

Fortune India reported on 28 September that the 3% figure is an expectation amid higher costs for 5G devices. A separate Business Standard technology report on 29 September examined the wider price and adoption context. TelecomTalk’s 3 October report also described the expected rebound. These reports discuss the same Counterpoint forecast; they do not turn it into a confirmed shipment tally.

The earlier version of this article gave specific modem costs, device-by-device display and memory comparisons, battery-life improvements, streaming bitrates, named brand strategies, tax proposals, and network forecasts without adequate support. Those claims have been removed. The defensible news here is narrower: Counterpoint sees a potential 4G shipment recovery in a more expensive smartphone market. Its 2026 forecast will need to be checked against later actual shipment data.