Fuel exports from refineries in India, Türkiye and Brunei to countries imposing sanctions on Russia increased 43% month-on-month in September 2026, reaching approximately €1 billion, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The research organisation estimated that €295 million of these refined petroleum products originated from Russian crude. The European Union received €667 million worth of products from the refineries covered by the analysis, making it the largest destination among the sanctioning markets included in the report.
Correction — October 18, 2026: The headline has been corrected to clarify that CREA’s 43% increase covers refineries in India, Türkiye and Brunei combined, not India alone.
India’s Reliance Industries and its Jamnagar refinery in Gujarat featured prominently in the findings. CREA said Jamnagar supplied six of the seven cargoes unloaded at European Union ports during September from the refineries covered by its analysis. The figures have renewed attention on how Western restrictions on refined products made from Russian oil operate in practice. However, the estimates do not establish that every shipment violated sanctions, and the reported increase covers exports to sanctioning countries from the three countries examined, rather than India’s total fuel exports.
Key Takeaways
- Exports increased 43%: Oil products shipped from refineries in India, Türkiye and Brunei to sanctioning countries were valued at €1 billion in September.
- European Union was the largest destination: The bloc received €667 million worth of products from the refineries covered by the analysis.
- Russian crude connection: CREA estimated that €295 million of the exported products had been refined from Russian crude.
- Jamnagar’s role: Reliance Industries’ refinery supplied six of the seven cargoes unloaded at EU ports in September, according to CREA.
- Russian crude imports declined: India’s Russian crude imports fell 13% in September, the second consecutive monthly decline.
- Sanctions remain relevant: The EU’s ban on refined products made from Russian crude has raised questions about refinery-level tracking and enforcement.
- Important distinction: CREA’s estimates describe trade flows and estimated crude origins; they are not, by themselves, a legal finding of sanctions violations.
What Happened to Indian Fuel Exports in September?
The September figures highlight the continued importance of international fuel trade for large Asian refining centres. Refineries buy crude oil, process it into products such as diesel, petrol, jet fuel and other petroleum derivatives, and sell those products to domestic or overseas customers.
According to CREA’s September analysis, refineries in India, Türkiye and Brunei exported approximately €1 billion worth of oil products to countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia. This was 43% higher than the value recorded in August.
The destinations included the European Union, Australia, the United States and New Zealand. The EU accounted for €667 million, followed by Australia at €168 million, the US at €154 million and New Zealand at €19 million.
| Destination | Value of oil products in September 2026 |
|---|---|
| European Union | €667 million |
| Australia | €168 million |
| United States | €154 million |
| New Zealand | €19 million |
| Total | €1 billion |
Source: CREA’s September 2026 analysis. Figures are rounded and cover exports from refineries in India, Türkiye and Brunei to the sanctioning destinations included in the report.
The increase is measured in value terms, not necessarily in the physical volume of fuel shipped. Changes in international fuel prices, the mix of products exported and shipment timing can all influence the total value.
It is also important not to interpret the figures as India’s overall petroleum export growth. They refer to a specific group of refineries and destinations, with the analysis focusing on the Russian crude connection and Western sanctions.
Why Is Russian Crude Important to India’s Refining Industry?
India became a major buyer of Russian crude after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 changed global oil trade flows. As some Western buyers reduced purchases, Russian suppliers offered crude at discounts to international benchmarks, making it attractive to refiners seeking competitive feedstock.
Indian refineries can process crude from different origins into products sold domestically or overseas. When discounted crude is available and export prices for refined products are favourable, refiners can potentially improve their processing margins.
The economics depend on several factors, including the price of crude, refinery efficiency, product demand, shipping costs, insurance, financing and the prices customers are willing to pay for diesel, petrol and other products.
However, the Russian crude trade has also exposed Indian refiners to geopolitical and regulatory risks. Western governments have introduced restrictions aimed at limiting Russian energy revenues following the invasion of Ukraine. These measures affect how oil and refined products can be imported, transported, financed and sold.
For Indian companies, the commercial decision therefore involves more than finding the cheapest crude. They must also evaluate destination-market rules and whether the relevant shipment, refinery and trading arrangements comply with applicable sanctions.
Reliance’s Jamnagar Refinery Is Central to the Story
Reliance Industries operates the large Jamnagar refining complex in Gujarat, one of the world’s major refining hubs. Its scale and ability to process different crude grades have made it an important participant in international petroleum-product markets.
CREA said Jamnagar supplied six of the seven cargoes unloaded at EU ports during September from the refineries covered by its analysis. It also identified a significant US-bound export stream from the refinery.
One cargo of gasoil, a diesel-type fuel, weighing approximately 104,000 tonnes was still travelling toward Rotterdam at the end of September, according to the report. The shipment illustrates how refinery production, cargo loading and final arrival can fall into different reporting periods.
The refinery’s role requires careful interpretation. Reliance has previously said that its export-oriented special economic zone refinery stopped processing Russian crude in November 2025. The Jamnagar complex also contains separate refining facilities, and the company’s statements about crude sourcing and the facilities’ operations must be distinguished from CREA’s broader refinery and shipment analysis.
The fact that a cargo is associated with a large refinery complex does not, by itself, establish which crude batches were used to produce it or whether a specific legal restriction was breached. Those questions require facility-specific, shipment-level and regulatory evidence.
Nevertheless, Jamnagar’s prominence in the reported trade flows makes the refinery an important part of the debate over how crude origin is traced through complex refining and export networks.
How the European Union’s Russian Oil Restrictions Work
The European Union has imposed restrictions on imports of refined petroleum products made from Russian crude oil. The ban took effect in January 2026 and was intended to reduce the ability to sell Russian-origin oil into the European market indirectly through third-country refineries.
The underlying challenge is that crude oil is processed into multiple products and can be mixed with other crude grades or handled through complex supply chains. Once crude enters a refinery, determining the precise origin of individual finished products can require detailed documentation and operational records.
CREA argues that the current approach leaves an enforcement gap. It has called for a refinery-level restriction that would prevent imports from facilities that have processed Russian crude during the preceding six months, regardless of the declared origin of a particular shipment.
That is a recommendation from the research organisation, not a description of a newly enacted EU-wide rule. The distinction is important because policy proposals and existing legal requirements are not interchangeable.
The EU’s official guidance sets out how its restrictions on refined products made from Russian crude should be applied. Importers and enforcement authorities must consider the relevant legal provisions and documentation, rather than assume that every product from a refinery that has handled Russian oil is automatically prohibited under every circumstance.
For businesses, the practical consequences include more detailed supply-chain checks, additional documentation and the possibility that buyers will avoid shipments whose crude origins are difficult to verify.
Why Did Exports Rise While India’s Russian Crude Imports Fell?
India’s Russian crude imports declined 13% in September, marking a second consecutive monthly fall, according to CREA. The decrease occurred even as exports from refineries covered by its analysis to sanctioning countries rose in value.
The two movements are not necessarily contradictory. Refiners can export products manufactured from crude purchased in earlier periods, and exports may be influenced by inventory levels, refinery throughput, product demand and the timing of cargo departures.
CREA reported that intake fell at several large importing facilities. Russian crude imports at Jamnagar declined 27% month-on-month, Indian Oil Corporation’s Paradip refinery recorded a 21% decrease, and Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery saw an 8% reduction. CREA said Vadinar overtook Jamnagar as India’s largest Russian crude importer in September.
The report also estimated that India spent €4.1 billion on Russian hydrocarbons during the month. Crude oil accounted for €3.6 billion, while coal and oil products made up the remainder.
| Indicator | September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Change in Russian crude imports to India | Down 13% month-on-month |
| Total Russian hydrocarbons purchased by India | €4.1 billion |
| Russian crude oil component | €3.6 billion |
| Estimated exports to sanctioning countries from covered refineries | €1 billion |
| Estimated value refined from Russian crude | €295 million |
Figures are based on CREA’s reporting and should be read as separate measures of imports and exports, not as a direct accounting of the same oil volumes.
Crude purchases and finished-product exports also involve different stages of the supply chain. Oil imported in one month may be processed and shipped later, while refineries can draw on existing inventories and blend different crude grades.
What the Increase Means for India’s Energy Trade
India’s refining sector serves both domestic demand and overseas markets. Large refineries can process crude into a range of products and adjust output according to market conditions, within the limits of their equipment and operating economics.
Overseas sales can generate export revenue, support refinery utilisation and help companies capture margins when international demand is strong. For a country that imports much of its crude oil, refining and exporting higher-value petroleum products also forms an important part of its energy trade.
At the same time, the trade can become more complicated when crude origin affects access to destination markets. If buyers face uncertainty about whether a shipment meets sanctions requirements, they may demand additional documentation, seek alternative suppliers or negotiate lower prices.
This uncertainty can influence refinery planning and the choice of crude grades. It can also shift trade toward destinations with different regulatory requirements, potentially changing the routes used by refiners and traders.
The September figures therefore reveal more than a rise in export value. They highlight the interaction between commodity prices, refining economics, shipping patterns and the enforcement of international restrictions.
What Could Happen Next?
CREA’s proposal for stronger refinery-level restrictions could intensify the debate over whether existing rules adequately prevent Russian crude from reaching sanctioning markets through third-country refining.
Any policy change would depend on decisions by the relevant governments and institutions. A stricter approach could increase compliance requirements for refiners and importers, while also changing the range of suppliers available to European buyers.
For India, the impact would depend on which facilities and products were affected, how rules were applied and whether refiners could redirect shipments to alternative markets. Companies would need to weigh the cost of compliance against the commercial benefits of selling into particular destinations.
Refiners will also continue to respond to crude prices, discounts, freight costs and product demand. If Russian crude becomes less competitive or harder to source, Indian companies may adjust their purchasing mix. If discounts widen and demand for refined products remains strong, the economics could move in the opposite direction.
The Bigger Picture
The 43% increase in September exports demonstrates how global energy trade can continue to evolve even under extensive sanctions. Refineries in India, Türkiye and Brunei sent €1 billion worth of products to sanctioning countries, while CREA estimated that a portion of those products had been refined from Russian crude. The data underline the complexity of tracing crude origin through processing, blending and international shipping.
The story is also about the limits of interpreting trade statistics without shipment-level evidence. Export values, refinery operations and estimated crude origins can identify patterns that deserve scrutiny, but they do not automatically prove that a specific transaction was unlawful. The next phase will depend on how regulators apply existing rules, whether they adopt additional restrictions and how refiners respond to changing commercial and compliance requirements.
Looking Ahead
Indian refiners will continue to balance crude availability, processing margins and access to international customers. Reliance’s Jamnagar complex is likely to remain under scrutiny because of its scale and the cargoes identified in CREA’s September analysis. Companies and importers will need to maintain clear documentation on crude sourcing and product eligibility as sanctions enforcement evolves.
The broader outcome will depend on both policy and market conditions. A stricter refinery-level approach could change trade routes and supplier choices, while shifts in Russian crude discounts, shipping costs and demand could alter the economics even without new rules. For now, the September data show a sharp increase in the value of exports to sanctioning markets, but the precise legal implications must be assessed shipment by shipment.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. By how much did fuel exports from refineries using Russian crude increase?
CREA reported that oil-product exports from refineries in India, Türkiye and Brunei to sanctioning countries rose 43% month-on-month to €1 billion in September 2026.
2. How much of these exports were estimated to come from Russian crude?
CREA estimated that €295 million worth of the products exported to sanctioning countries had been refined from Russian crude.
3. What role did Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery play?
CREA said Jamnagar supplied six of the seven cargoes unloaded at EU ports in September from the refineries covered by its analysis. This finding should not be treated as proof that every cargo violated sanctions.
4. Has the European Union banned all fuel from India?
No. The EU’s restriction concerns refined petroleum products made from Russian crude, subject to the applicable legal framework. It is not a blanket ban on every petroleum product exported from India.
5. Why did exports rise while India’s Russian crude imports declined?
Exports and crude imports measure different stages of the supply chain. Refineries can process earlier purchases or existing inventories, and export values can rise because of prices, product mix or shipment timing even when monthly crude imports fall.
6. Is CREA’s proposed refinery-level ban already in force?
CREA’s recommendation to apply restrictions at refinery level is a policy proposal. It should not be confused with the existing EU rules or treated as a newly enacted ban.
Sources and context — October 18, 2026: See CREA’s September 2026 analysis. The 43% month-on-month increase covers refineries in India, Türkiye and Brunei combined. It is not an India-only growth figure or, by itself, proof of sanctions violations.
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