India’s Russian Crude Imports Fall 12% as Trump Waiver Eases Pressure

India’s Russian crude oil import bill fell 12% month on month in September 2026, reaching €3.6 billion, or approximately $4.04 billion, as refiners adjusted their purchases amid uncertainty over potential US tariffs. Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) showed that India remained one of the world’s largest buyers of Russian oil despite the decline. The country imported €4.1 billion worth of Russian hydrocarbons during the month, compared with €4.8 billion in August.

The outlook for purchases shifted after US President Donald Trump issued a temporary waiver on October 16, easing specified tariffs, sanctions and restrictions under legislation targeting buyers of Russian energy. The decision gives Indian refiners additional flexibility, but it does not guarantee a return to earlier buying levels. Ship-tracking estimates cited by industry reports suggest that imports could remain around 1.8–1.9 million barrels per day in October, as refiners balance pricing, supply security and the possibility of renewed US pressure.

Key Takeaways

• September import bill: India’s Russian crude purchases were valued at €3.6 billion ($4.04 billion), down 12% from August.
• Total Russian hydrocarbons: Imports of crude, coal and oil products amounted to €4.1 billion, compared with €4.8 billion in August.
• US policy change: Trump issued a temporary waiver on October 16, easing specified sanctions, restrictions and duties targeting Russian energy buyers.
• Import outlook: Kpler estimates cited by industry reports put October Russian crude imports at around 1.8–1.9 million barrels per day.
• Refinery trends: Russian crude purchases declined at Vadinar, Jamnagar and Paradip in September.
• Energy security: India continues to diversify suppliers while seeking competitively priced crude.
• Key uncertainty: The waiver provides temporary relief but does not eliminate the possibility of future US action.

Why India’s Russian Crude Imports Fell in September

India’s lower Russian crude import bill followed months of uncertainty over US trade measures targeting countries purchasing Russian energy. The threat of additional tariffs on Indian exports encouraged refiners to reconsider how much Russian crude they bought and whether alternative suppliers could provide commercially viable supplies.

Russia became a major supplier to India after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when discounted Russian barrels offered Indian refiners an opportunity to reduce their input costs. The trade subsequently became an important part of India’s energy sourcing strategy.

However, the risk of higher US tariffs changed the calculation. Indian refiners needed to consider not only the price of crude but also the potential consequences for India’s wider trade relationship with Washington.

The September data reflected that uncertainty. According to CREA, Russian crude imports fell at three of India’s largest importing refineries: Vadinar, Jamnagar and Paradip. Vadinar’s purchases declined 8% month on month, Jamnagar’s fell 27%, and Paradip’s dropped 21%.

Despite the reductions, Vadinar overtook Jamnagar as India’s largest importer of Russian crude during the month, according to CREA.

What the 12% decline actually measures

The reported 12% fall refers to the value of Russian crude imports, not necessarily an identical 12% decline in physical oil volumes. Import value is affected by both the quantity purchased and the price paid per barrel.

This distinction is important because the price of Russia’s Urals crude rose substantially in September. CREA reported that the grade’s average price increased 32% from August to $90.70 per barrel, its highest monthly average since April.

Higher prices can partially offset a decline in purchased volumes. As a result, import values and physical shipments can move at different rates.

Trump’s Waiver Changes the Immediate Outlook

On October 16, Trump signed an executive order waiving specified sanctions, restrictions and duties under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The move came shortly before a deadline associated with enforcement of the law’s provisions targeting major buyers of Russian energy.

The legislation had raised the possibility of tariffs of up to 100% on covered imports from countries purchasing Russian oil and gas, subject to the law’s conditions and presidential action. The waiver reduced the immediate threat of those measures for India.

The distinction between a waiver and a permanent policy reversal matters. The executive action provides relief from specified measures, but it does not mean the United States has permanently abandoned its ability to impose future restrictions under the applicable framework.

For Indian refiners, the decision reduces one source of near-term uncertainty. It may make Russian crude purchases easier to evaluate on commercial grounds, including price, shipping costs, quality and availability.

However, companies must still consider the possibility that US policy could change again. Refiners may therefore prefer a diversified sourcing strategy rather than rely too heavily on one supplier whose trade conditions could be affected by geopolitical decisions.

Will India Buy More Russian Oil Again?

The waiver may support continued purchases, but a dramatic rebound is not assured. Industry estimates cited by Business Standard suggest that India imported around 1.82 million barrels per day of Russian crude in September, while Kpler expected October volumes of approximately 1.8–1.9 million barrels per day.

These figures are estimates based on shipping and market data, rather than a final government tally of every cargo. Different data providers may report slightly different volumes because they use different tracking methods, cut-off dates and shipment classifications.

Indicator	Reported figure
September Russian crude import value	€3.6 billion
Approximate US-dollar value	$4.04 billion
Total Russian hydrocarbon imports	€4.1 billion
Total in August	€4.8 billion
Average Urals crude price in September	$90.70 per barrel
Estimated September import volume in Kpler reporting	Around 1.82 million barrels per day
Kpler’s cited October outlook	Around 1.8–1.9 million barrels per day

Sources: CREA data reported by Moneycontrol and Kpler estimates cited by Business Standard. Import value and physical volume are separate measures.

The outlook will depend on whether Russian crude remains attractive compared with supplies from the Middle East, the United States and other producers. Refiners must evaluate the price of each grade, transportation expenses, delivery schedules and refinery compatibility.

If Russian oil is available at a meaningful discount and the policy environment remains stable, refiners may have an incentive to maintain or increase purchases. If discounts narrow or sanctions uncertainty returns, alternative supplies could become more attractive.

Why India Continues to Diversify Its Oil Suppliers

India imports more than 88% of its oil requirements, according to CREA’s reporting. This high dependence on overseas supplies makes energy security a central consideration for the government and refiners.

A diversified supplier base can help reduce exposure to disruptions in any single country or shipping route. Indian refiners have increased purchases from suppliers including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the United States as they adjusted their sourcing strategies.

The shift is not necessarily a permanent move away from Russia. Rather, it reflects an attempt to retain flexibility when prices and geopolitical conditions change.

Russian crude became particularly attractive when discounts made it cheaper than competing grades. But the effective cost of a barrel includes more than the quoted price: shipping, insurance, payment arrangements and compliance risks can influence the final economics.

For India, the commercial objective is to obtain reliable supplies at competitive prices while protecting its broader economic interests. The balance becomes more complicated when a purchasing decision can affect access to another major market.

How the Change Could Affect Oil Prices and Inflation

The effect on India’s economy depends on the price India pays for imported crude, not just the country from which it buys the oil. Because India is heavily dependent on imports, higher global crude prices can increase the cost of supplying domestic refineries.

Those costs can affect transportation fuels, petrochemicals, aviation fuel and other energy-intensive sectors. The extent to which consumers ultimately feel the impact depends on refining margins, taxes, government decisions and how fuel prices are adjusted.

The US waiver may also influence the global oil market by reducing the immediate risk of some Russian supply restrictions. If it allows more Russian energy to reach buyers, it could ease pressure on available supplies.

However, the effect is not guaranteed. Global crude prices are also influenced by production decisions, geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions, demand growth and inventories. A policy waiver cannot by itself resolve all supply constraints.

For Indian refiners, the most direct benefit may be greater flexibility in choosing between suppliers. Whether that translates into lower fuel prices for consumers will depend on the broader cost structure and domestic pricing decisions.

What the Waiver Means for India-US Trade Relations

The tariff threat placed India’s energy purchases within a broader trade and diplomatic context. India seeks affordable energy supplies, while Washington has used the prospect of trade measures to exert pressure on countries buying Russian energy.

The temporary waiver reduces the immediate risk of the specified duties, giving Indian exporters and refiners more breathing room. But it does not remove uncertainty around future trade negotiations or the potential reactivation of restrictions.

The issue also illustrates how energy decisions can affect sectors far beyond oil. If additional tariffs were applied to covered Indian exports, businesses selling goods to the US could face higher costs and weaker competitiveness.

For policymakers, the challenge is to preserve access to affordable energy while maintaining stable trade relationships. That involves weighing the benefits of discounted Russian crude against the potential cost of renewed external pressure.

India’s longer-term approach will likely depend on the durability of the waiver, the terms of any future trade arrangements and the relative economics of alternative oil supplies.

The Bigger Picture

India’s lower Russian crude import bill in September reflects the influence of geopolitics on commercial energy decisions. Refiners reduced purchases at several major facilities while facing the possibility of US tariffs, even as the price of Russian Urals crude increased. The October waiver changes the immediate policy environment but does not guarantee that buying will return to earlier levels.

For India, the central priority remains securing reliable and affordable energy. Russian oil can remain part of that strategy when its economics are favourable, but dependence on a single supplier or a temporary policy arrangement carries risks. A diversified sourcing strategy gives refiners more flexibility, although the final balance will continue to depend on prices, shipping conditions and international relations.

Looking Ahead

The next important indicators will be October’s actual Russian crude arrivals, the discounts available on Russian grades and any further clarification of the US waiver’s scope. Kpler’s estimate of 1.8–1.9 million barrels per day suggests that purchases could remain near recent levels, but the figure is a forecast rather than a confirmed final result. Any renewed US restrictions could change refiners’ decisions again.

Over the longer term, India will need to balance commercial energy sourcing with the risks of trade disruption. Russian crude may continue to provide value when it is competitively priced, but alternatives from the Middle East and other suppliers remain important. The outcome will depend less on the waiver alone than on the interaction of crude prices, refinery requirements, shipping costs and the durability of US policy.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. By how much did India’s Russian crude imports fall in September 2026?

The value of India’s Russian crude imports fell 12% month on month to €3.6 billion, or approximately $4.04 billion. This is a decline in import value, not necessarily an identical decline in physical volume.

2. Why did India reduce Russian oil purchases?

Refiners adjusted purchases amid uncertainty over potential US tariffs targeting buyers of Russian energy. They also diversified supplies from other producers, including Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

3. What did Trump’s waiver change?

The October 16 executive order waived specified sanctions, restrictions and duties under the US law targeting Russian and Iranian energy. It eased the immediate threat of the covered measures but did not guarantee that future restrictions could never be imposed.

4. Will India increase Russian oil imports after the waiver?

Possibly, but a sharp increase is not guaranteed. Kpler estimates cited by industry reports suggested October imports could remain around 1.8–1.9 million barrels per day.

5. How much Russian oil does India buy?

Kpler reporting cited by Business Standard estimated September imports at around 1.82 million barrels per day. Different data providers may publish slightly different estimates because of their methodologies and reporting periods.

6. Could the waiver reduce petrol and diesel prices in India?

Not automatically. The waiver may give refiners more flexibility to source crude, but domestic fuel prices also depend on global oil prices, refining costs, taxes and pricing decisions.