India’s soybean production is expected to decline by 2.11% to 107.93 lakh tonnes during the 2026 Kharif season, according to the first crop estimate released by the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA). The forecast suggests that stronger harvests in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will offset much of the damage caused by drought-like conditions in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana. The estimate was presented at SOPA’s international soybean conference in Indore on October 17.
The projected decline is relatively modest at the national level, but it conceals substantial differences between major producing states. Maharashtra’s soybean output is estimated to fall by 33.2%, while Madhya Pradesh is expected to record a 32.2% increase and Rajasthan a 48.2% rise. The figures highlight how uneven rainfall and soil-moisture conditions can produce sharply different agricultural outcomes across India, even when the total area planted with a crop increases.
Key Takeaways
- National production: India’s soybean output is projected at 107.93 lakh tonnes in Kharif 2026, down 2.11% from 110.26 lakh tonnes in the previous season.
- Madhya Pradesh: Production is estimated to increase 32.2% to 57.16 lakh tonnes.
- Maharashtra: Output is forecast to decline 33.2% to 34.88 lakh tonnes because of prolonged dry spells and moisture stress.
- Rajasthan: Production is expected to rise 48.2% to 9.47 lakh tonnes.
- Cultivation area: Soybean was sown across 117.73 lakh hectares, nearly 5% more than in 2025.
- Crop damage: Drought and deficient soil moisture affected 7.76 lakh hectares, according to SOPA.
- Market significance: Soybean supplies India’s edible-oil processing industry and provides protein-rich meal for livestock and poultry feed.
India’s Soybean Production Forecast for 2026
SOPA’s first crop estimate puts India’s soybean production at 107.93 lakh tonnes for the current Kharif season. That compares with 110.26 lakh tonnes in the previous season, a reduction of approximately 2.33 lakh tonnes.
Soybean is one of India’s important oilseed crops. Its seeds are processed into soybean oil for food use, while the remaining soybean meal is an important source of protein for animal feed. Changes in production can therefore affect farmers, oilseed processors, edible-oil markets and the poultry and livestock industries.
The forecast is significant because it points to a relatively limited national decline despite severe crop losses in some regions. The difference is explained largely by stronger production estimates in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which are expected to compensate for much of Maharashtra’s shortfall.
| Indicator | Kharif 2025 | Kharif 2026 estimate |
|---|---|---|
| National soybean production | 110.26 lakh tonnes | 107.93 lakh tonnes |
| Soybean cultivation area | 112.14 lakh hectares | 117.73 lakh hectares |
| Average yield on harvested area | 983 kg/hectare | 981 kg/hectare |
| Estimated production change | — | -2.11% |
Source: SOPA’s first crop estimate for Kharif 2026. One lakh equals 100,000.
The figures also show why higher planting area does not necessarily result in greater production. Although the area sown increased by almost 5%, drought and inadequate soil moisture reduced the harvested area and damaged crops during critical growth stages.
Madhya Pradesh Leads With a Stronger Soybean Harvest
Madhya Pradesh, India’s largest soybean-producing state, is expected to be the principal contributor to the national crop estimate. SOPA projects output at 57.16 lakh tonnes, up 32.2% from 43.24 lakh tonnes in the previous year.
The state has also expanded the area under cultivation. Soybean was sown across 52.09 lakh hectares, compared with 48.64 lakh hectares a year earlier.
Yield improvements are another factor behind the stronger forecast. SOPA estimates average yield at 1,108 kg per hectare, up from 889 kg per hectare in the previous season.
These figures suggest that Madhya Pradesh benefited from a combination of a larger planted area and better estimated productivity. Since the state accounts for a substantial share of India’s soybean output, its performance has a major influence on the national total.
A stronger crop in Madhya Pradesh can help stabilise the supply of soybeans available to processors, even when other major growing regions experience weather-related losses. However, the final outcome will depend on harvested quantities, crop quality and the movement of produce into markets.
Maharashtra Faces a Sharp Production Decline
Maharashtra is expected to experience one of the most significant setbacks among India’s major soybean-producing states. SOPA estimates production at 34.88 lakh tonnes, down 33.2% from the previous season.
The association attributed the losses to prolonged dry spells and deficient soil moisture during important stages of crop growth. These conditions reduced yields and left some fields too damaged to harvest.
Soybean crops across a combined 7.02 lakh hectares in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana were reportedly completely destroyed and could not be harvested. The association also estimated that deficient moisture and drought affected a total of 7.76 lakh hectares across the country.
The damage is important because Maharashtra is a major source of soybean for processors and traders. A reduction in its crop can affect the timing and volume of arrivals in local agricultural markets, while farmers may receive less income from harvested output.
The effects will vary across districts. Rainfall conditions and crop damage have not been uniform across the state, meaning a statewide production estimate cannot fully describe the circumstances of individual farming communities.
For farmers whose crops were severely affected, lower output can also complicate decisions about the next sowing season. Reduced cash receipts may limit their ability to purchase seeds, fertilisers and other agricultural inputs without borrowing.
Rajasthan’s Production Is Expected to Rise 48.2%
Rajasthan is expected to record a substantial increase in soybean production, with SOPA forecasting output of 9.47 lakh tonnes, up 48.2% from the previous season.
SOPA executive director D. N. Pathak said Rajasthan’s yield had been good this year, helping the state contribute to the partial offset of losses in Maharashtra.
The increase matters because Rajasthan is one of the states helping cushion the national supply outlook. However, its production base is smaller than that of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, so even a large percentage increase does not translate into the same absolute volume as the output change in the leading producing state.
The three states illustrate how regional differences shape the national result.
| State | Estimated Kharif 2026 output | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Madhya Pradesh | 57.16 lakh tonnes | +32.2% |
| Maharashtra | 34.88 lakh tonnes | -33.2% |
| Rajasthan | 9.47 lakh tonnes | +48.2% |
Figures are SOPA estimates, not final government production data.
Together, the three states account for most of the production highlighted in the association’s forecast. Their contrasting results explain why the national decline is much smaller than Maharashtra’s estimated contraction.
Why More Sowing Did Not Prevent Lower Production
The total area planted with soybean increased to 117.73 lakh hectares in Kharif 2026 from 112.14 lakh hectares in 2025. That represents an increase of nearly 5%.
Despite the larger planted area, the estimated harvested area fell short of the area sown. SOPA put the harvested area at 109.98 lakh hectares, as drought and inadequate soil moisture damaged crops.
Agricultural production depends on more than how much land is planted. Rainfall timing, moisture availability, crop development, pest pressure and the conditions during flowering and seed formation all influence the final yield.
Soybean requires sufficient moisture during key growth stages. A prolonged dry spell can reduce the number of pods and the development of seeds, while severe moisture stress can make harvesting uneconomical or impossible.
The current estimate illustrates that relationship. National average yield on harvested land is projected at 981 kg per hectare, slightly below the 983 kg per hectare recorded in the previous season. The relatively small change in average yield does not capture the full impact of fields that were damaged and excluded from the harvested area.
The distinction between sown area and harvested area is therefore essential to understanding why the national crop can decline even after farmers plant more land.
What the Production Outlook Means for Soybean Oil and Feed
Soybean serves two important markets. Processing produces soybean oil, which is used as edible oil, and soybean meal, which supplies protein to livestock and poultry feed producers.
A smaller domestic crop can tighten the availability of soybeans for crushing if other sources of supply do not compensate. Processors may have to compete more actively for arrivals, while feed manufacturers and oil buyers monitor the cost and availability of derived products.
However, the national production forecast alone cannot determine the direction of retail soybean oil prices. Prices also depend on global vegetable-oil markets, imports, currency movements, freight costs, government trade policy, processing margins and demand from food and feed industries.
India imports edible oils to meet part of its domestic consumption. Imported supplies can influence local prices when domestic oilseed production changes, although the effect depends on international prices and the cost of bringing products into the country.
Soybean meal markets also have their own dynamics. Domestic feed demand, export opportunities and the availability of alternative protein sources can affect how crop changes translate into prices.
The forecast should therefore be viewed as an important supply indicator rather than a direct prediction of higher cooking-oil prices.
What Farmers and Processors Will Watch Next
SOPA’s estimate is the association’s first crop assessment, so the final production outcome may differ as more information becomes available. Harvest progress, actual arrivals in mandis, crop quality and further assessments will help determine how closely the forecast matches the eventual harvest.
Farmers in drought-affected regions will be watching market prices and any eligible crop-loss assistance. Where yields have fallen sharply, higher market prices may partly offset reduced production for some farmers, but they cannot necessarily compensate those who have lost most or all of their crop.
Processors will focus on the quantity and quality of incoming soybeans, the pace of arrivals and the economics of crushing the crop into oil and meal. Traders will also compare the domestic harvest with global supplies and import costs.
The national picture may remain relatively stable if Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan deliver the expected output. But regional losses could still create financial stress for affected farmers and supply challenges for businesses that depend on local arrivals.
The Bigger Picture
India’s soybean forecast shows how a national agricultural outcome can conceal serious regional differences. Higher production in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is expected to cushion much of Maharashtra’s drought-related loss, limiting the projected national decline to 2.11%. The larger planted area has helped, but it has not fully offset the effect of damaged crops and a smaller harvested area.
The consequences extend beyond agriculture. Soybean supports edible-oil processing, animal feed and farm incomes, linking rainfall conditions in producing states to wider commodity markets. The eventual impact on prices and supplies will depend on the final harvest, market arrivals, imports and demand from processors. For now, SOPA’s estimate points to a modest national shortfall alongside significant hardship in drought-hit regions.
Looking Ahead
The next major indicator will be whether actual harvest volumes confirm SOPA’s estimate of 107.93 lakh tonnes. Data on arrivals, yields and crop quality will help traders and processors assess domestic availability, while farmers in affected areas will continue to monitor prices and assistance measures. The forecast may be revised as the season progresses and more crop information becomes available.
For the wider market, the key question is whether stronger production in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will be sufficient to maintain adequate supplies despite Maharashtra’s losses. Soybean oil prices, meal demand, import costs and global vegetable-oil conditions will all influence the outcome. A relatively small national decline does not eliminate the need to track regional crop damage and its impact on farming communities.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. How much soybean will India produce in 2026?
SOPA estimates India’s Kharif 2026 soybean production at 107.93 lakh tonnes, down 2.11% from 110.26 lakh tonnes in the previous season.
2. Which state is expected to produce the most soybean?
Madhya Pradesh is expected to remain India’s largest soybean producer, with estimated output of 57.16 lakh tonnes, up 32.2% year on year.
3. Why is Maharashtra’s soybean production falling?
SOPA attributes the projected 33.2% decline to prolonged dry spells and deficient soil moisture during critical stages of crop growth.
4. How much soybean will Rajasthan produce?
Rajasthan’s soybean production is estimated at 9.47 lakh tonnes, an increase of 48.2% from the previous season.
5. Will lower soybean production increase cooking-oil prices?
Not necessarily. A smaller crop can affect domestic supply, but soybean oil prices also depend on imports, global vegetable-oil prices, currency movements, transport costs and demand.
6. Is the 2026 soybean production figure final?
No. The 107.93-lakh-tonne figure is SOPA’s first crop estimate. Actual production may differ as harvesting progresses and more data becomes available.
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