Source check, October 24, 2026: The linked IAEA PDF is the 2025 edition, using an end-2024 baseline and projections to 2050. It does not substantiate this article’s 2060 figures. Those figures remain unverified pending a matching source.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expects global nuclear power capacity could more than triple by 2060 under its high-growth scenario, reflecting rising electricity demand, electrification, energy-security concerns and the expansion of artificial intelligence data centers. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi highlighted the outlook in a report to the United Nations General Assembly on October 23, 2026, saying countries and technology companies are increasingly looking to nuclear energy for reliable, low-carbon electricity.
The projection reflects a growing reassessment of nuclear energy’s role in the global power mix. Nuclear reactors supplied around 10% of the world’s electricity in 2025, according to the IAEA. However, the projected expansion is not guaranteed: the agency’s scenarios range from a more conservative increase to a high case in which installed nuclear capacity reaches approximately 1,284 gigawatts by 2060. Financing, construction timelines, regulation, fuel supply and public acceptance will all influence how much of that potential becomes reality.
Key Takeaways
- Potential tripling: The IAEA’s high-case scenario projects global nuclear capacity could reach 1,284 gigawatts by 2060, around 3.4 times the level at the end of 2025.
- AI electricity demand: Data centers and AI computing are increasing interest in reliable electricity supplies that produce low operational carbon emissions.
- Energy security: Governments are reassessing nuclear power as a way to diversify electricity generation and reduce exposure to fossil-fuel supply disruptions.
- Current contribution: Nuclear power generated around 10% of global electricity in 2025, according to the IAEA.
- More reactors under construction: More than 60 new reactors were under construction in 2025.
- Uncertain outlook: The IAEA’s lower-growth scenario projects nuclear capacity of about 696 gigawatts by 2060, showing that the expansion will depend on policy and investment decisions.
Why the IAEA Expects Nuclear Power to Grow
The IAEA’s latest outlook reflects changes in how governments and businesses view electricity demand. Electrification is expanding across transport, industry, heating and digital infrastructure. At the same time, AI models and data centers require substantial and increasingly continuous supplies of electricity.
Grossi highlighted technology companies’ interest in dependable, low-carbon energy as one of the factors supporting nuclear power’s growth. Unlike wind and solar generation, nuclear reactors can generally produce electricity around the clock, although they require maintenance outages and careful management of fuel and operating systems.
Energy security is another major factor. Disruptions to oil and gas supplies in recent years have encouraged governments to diversify their energy sources. Nuclear power can provide a domestic source of electricity in countries with the technical capacity, financing and regulatory systems needed to build and operate reactors.
The agency has revised its projections upward for several consecutive years. Its 2026 estimates extend the outlook to 2060 for the first time, offering a longer-term view of how nuclear power could fit into changing electricity systems.
How Much Could Nuclear Capacity Increase by 2060?
The IAEA’s report presents two scenarios rather than a single guaranteed forecast. The low case assumes relatively limited changes in existing policies and market conditions, while the high case incorporates stronger national ambitions and more supportive conditions for nuclear expansion.
| Global nuclear capacity measure | 2025 baseline | 2060 low case | 2060 high case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Installed nuclear capacity | 377.1 GW | 696 GW | 1,284 GW |
| Approximate change from 2025 | — | 1.8 times | 3.4 times |
| Overall direction | Current fleet | Substantial growth | More than tripling |
Source: IAEA’s 2025 edition: projections to 2050.
The high case would require a large construction effort. The IAEA projects that around 128 GW of capacity could retire by 2060 under this scenario, while approximately 1,017 GW of new capacity would be added. The low case also assumes substantial new construction, partly to replace reactors that reach the end of their operating lives.
These figures describe installed generating capacity, not electricity consumption itself. Actual electricity generation depends on how often reactors operate, their output and the wider electricity mix. The agency’s separate generation projections also show strong growth under the high case.
AI Data Centers Are Changing the Energy Debate
AI has become an important factor in discussions about future electricity infrastructure. Training and operating advanced models require computing hardware, cooling systems, networking equipment and supporting facilities. As companies expand data centers, they need power supplies that can meet demand reliably.
Nuclear power is attracting interest because it can provide large volumes of electricity with low direct carbon emissions during operation. Existing nuclear plants may also offer an opportunity to supply electricity without waiting for an entirely new reactor to be constructed.
However, nuclear power is not the only option for meeting data-center demand. Solar, wind, hydropower, energy storage, grid upgrades and other generation sources can all contribute. The appropriate combination depends on local resources, transmission capacity, electricity prices and reliability requirements.
The growth of AI therefore strengthens the case for expanding power infrastructure generally. It does not mean that every new data center will use nuclear electricity or that nuclear power alone can satisfy the expected increase in demand.
Nuclear Power’s Role in Global Electricity Generation
The IAEA reported that more than 400 operating reactors in over 30 countries generated around 10% of global electricity in 2025. Nuclear power also accounted for approximately one-quarter of global low-carbon electricity production.
More than 60 new reactors were under construction at the time covered by the agency’s report, reflecting renewed investment in several markets.
| Indicator | Reported position |
|---|---|
| Operating nuclear reactors | More than 400 in 2025 |
| Countries with operating reactors | More than 30 |
| Share of global electricity | Around 10% |
| Share of low-carbon electricity | Approximately 25% |
| Reactors under construction | More than 60 |
Source: Associated Press report on the IAEA outlook.
Nuclear power’s contribution varies substantially by country. Some economies rely heavily on reactors for electricity, while others have no operating nuclear plants. Building a nuclear industry requires more than deciding to construct a reactor: countries need an independent regulatory framework, trained personnel, financing, secure fuel arrangements, waste-management plans and long-term operational oversight.
The Challenges That Could Limit Nuclear Expansion
Despite the more optimistic outlook, building nuclear capacity at scale remains difficult.
High upfront investment: Nuclear plants generally require substantial initial capital and long development periods. Financing costs can rise when projects face delays or regulatory uncertainty.
Construction timelines: Complex engineering, supply-chain constraints and licensing requirements can make projects take longer than anticipated. Delays can undermine project economics and postpone the delivery of electricity.
Ageing reactors: Many operating plants are approaching important lifetime-extension decisions. Extending their operating lives can help preserve low-carbon generation, but only where safety assessments and economic conditions support continued operation.
Waste and decommissioning: Countries must plan for the safe management of radioactive waste and the eventual decommissioning of nuclear facilities.
Safety and security: Nuclear power requires rigorous safeguards, emergency planning and protection against physical and cyber threats. Conflict can also threaten the safety of operating facilities, as demonstrated by concerns surrounding Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
The IAEA’s high case is therefore best understood as a plausible expansion scenario, not a prediction that every planned project will be completed.
What the Forecast Means for India
India is one of the countries with a strategic interest in expanding nuclear electricity. Its growing economy, industrial development, urbanization and digital infrastructure are increasing demand for dependable power. Nuclear energy could complement renewables and other electricity sources as India seeks to strengthen energy security and reduce emissions.
The global outlook offers an indication of the potential scale of nuclear investment, but it does not guarantee a particular outcome for India. The country’s future capacity will depend on domestic policies, project financing, reactor construction, fuel arrangements, regulatory oversight and the development of its nuclear supply chain.
For Indian businesses, a larger nuclear industry could create opportunities in engineering, heavy manufacturing, electrical equipment, construction and maintenance. Realizing those opportunities will require sustained investment, skilled workers and projects that meet safety and cost requirements.
The Bigger Picture
The IAEA’s outlook reflects a wider shift in energy planning. Governments and technology companies are increasingly focused on electricity that is not only low-carbon but also reliable and available when needed. Nuclear power can contribute to that objective, particularly in systems where demand is rising quickly and fossil-fuel imports create economic or strategic risks.
Nevertheless, a tripling of nuclear capacity would require decades of coordinated investment and policy support. The future electricity system will likely combine nuclear power with renewables, storage, transmission upgrades and other technologies. The IAEA’s projections show how significantly nuclear energy could expand, but the final outcome will depend on whether countries can turn ambitious plans into operating plants.
FAQs
1. What did the IAEA say about nuclear power by 2060?
The IAEA’s high-growth scenario projects that global nuclear power capacity could reach about 1,284 GW by 2060, compared with 377.1 GW at the end of 2025. That would be approximately 3.4 times the current baseline.
2. Why is nuclear energy attracting more interest?
Rising electricity demand, AI data centers, electrification, energy-security concerns and the need for low-carbon power are encouraging governments and companies to reconsider nuclear energy.
3. How much electricity does nuclear power generate today?
According to the IAEA, nuclear power supplied around 10% of global electricity in 2025 and approximately one-quarter of the world’s low-carbon electricity.
4. Is the tripling of nuclear power guaranteed?
No. The IAEA provides low- and high-case scenarios. Its lower-growth projection puts global nuclear capacity at around 696 GW by 2060, demonstrating that investment, regulation, construction and national energy policies will affect the final outcome.
5. Could India benefit from global nuclear expansion?
India could benefit through additional reliable electricity and potential growth in nuclear engineering, manufacturing and construction. The extent of those benefits will depend on India’s own investment plans, policies, project delivery and safety requirements.
Looking Ahead
The next phase of nuclear expansion will depend on whether countries can finance new reactors, extend the safe operation of existing plants and build the regulatory and industrial capabilities needed to support a larger fleet. Demand from AI data centers could strengthen the investment case, but electricity markets will continue to weigh nuclear power against other generation and storage options.
The IAEA’s 2060 outlook signals that nuclear power could become a substantially larger part of the global energy system. Whether capacity actually triples will depend less on the headline forecast than on decisions made over the coming decades by governments, utilities, technology companies, investors and regulators.
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