Shiprocket’s newer businesses are projected to reach break-even in FY28, according to internal financial projections reviewed by The Arc, as the e-commerce logistics company prepares to enter the public markets. The projections suggest that Shiprocket expects its established domestic shipping business to remain the company’s primary profit engine while newer businesses such as cross-border logistics, quick commerce, marketing tools and capital solutions drive a larger share of future growth.
The projections come as Shiprocket launches its initial public offering on August 12, with the company seeking a valuation of roughly ₹7,000 crore. The IPO has been reduced from the size originally planned, with the company now targeting about ₹1,617 crore through a combination of fresh shares and an offer for sale. The company has also attracted strong institutional interest, raising around ₹727 crore from anchor investors ahead of the issue.
New Businesses Expected to Reach Break-Even in FY28
Shiprocket’s emerging businesses have been a major source of investment as the company expands beyond its traditional domestic shipping operations.
According to internal projections reviewed by The Arc, these businesses are expected to stop making losses in FY28. The broader group is projected to increase revenue from approximately $213 million in FY26 to $371 million in FY28, before reaching about $773 million by FY31.
The projections are not publicly disclosed financial guidance, making the estimates particularly relevant as investors assess Shiprocket’s growth and profitability prospects ahead of its listing.
Financial Projections
| Metric | FY26 | FY28 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Projected Revenue | $213 million | $371 million | $773 million |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.9 million | $34 million | $143 million |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 0.87% | ~9% | ~19% |
Adjusted EBITDA excludes employee stock ownership plan expenses, according to the company’s projections.
Core Shipping Business Remains the Profit Engine
Shiprocket’s domestic shipping business remains the strongest part of the company from a profitability perspective.
The core business generated ₹187 crore in adjusted EBITDA in FY26, while the emerging business segment reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of around ₹169 crore. This means the profitability generated by the established shipping operation is currently helping finance investments into newer businesses.
The contrast is central to Shiprocket’s investment story. The company has demonstrated that its core logistics platform can generate operating profits at scale, but it is simultaneously spending heavily to build businesses that have yet to achieve sustainable profitability.
Shiprocket’s Business Structure
| Segment | Role |
|---|---|
| Domestic shipping | Established profit engine |
| Cross-border logistics | Growth opportunity |
| Quick commerce | Emerging business |
| Marketing solutions | New revenue stream |
| Capital solutions | Financial services opportunity |
Shiprocket’s strategy is therefore built around using its existing merchant network and logistics infrastructure to expand into adjacent services.
Revenue Growth Expected to Accelerate
The internal projections indicate that Shiprocket expects revenue growth to significantly outpace the expansion of its existing core business over the next several years.
Revenue is projected to rise from $213 million in FY26 to $371 million in FY28, representing growth of roughly 74% over two years. By FY31, the projection reaches $773 million, which would represent more than three times FY26 revenue.
The company expects improved operating leverage to accompany that expansion. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to increase from only $1.9 million in FY26 to $34 million in FY28, before reaching approximately $143 million in FY31.
That would push the adjusted EBITDA margin from less than 1% to around 9% in FY28 and approximately 19% by FY31.
IPO Comes as Shiprocket Scales New Businesses
Shiprocket’s IPO comes at a significant transition point for the company.
The company has reduced the size of its offering to around ₹1,617 crore, consisting of approximately ₹886 crore in fresh equity and ₹732 crore through an offer for sale. At the upper end of the ₹92–₹97 price band, Shiprocket would command a valuation of roughly ₹7,057 crore.
The fresh capital is intended to support the company’s expansion, including investments in technology, marketing, debt repayment and broader corporate purposes.
Shiprocket IPO Snapshot
| IPO Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| IPO Size | About ₹1,617 crore |
| Fresh Issue | About ₹886 crore |
| Offer for Sale | About ₹732 crore |
| Price Band | ₹92–₹97 per share |
| Implied Valuation | About ₹7,057 crore at upper band |
| IPO Dates | August 12–14, 2026 |
Shiprocket has also secured significant backing from institutional investors. Its anchor round attracted investors including SBI Mutual Fund, HDFC Mutual Fund, Kotak Mutual Fund, Nippon Mutual Fund and WhiteOak Capital.
Profitability Remains a Key IPO Question
Despite the improving economics of its core business, Shiprocket is not yet profitable at the net income level.
The company reported an operating revenue of ₹2,024 crore in FY26, compared with ₹1,632 crore in FY25. Adjusted EBITDA improved to ₹18 crore from ₹7 crore, but Shiprocket still recorded a net loss of ₹76 crore in FY26.
This creates a clear distinction between Shiprocket’s core economics and its consolidated financial performance.
The domestic shipping operation is profitable, but investment in newer businesses continues to weigh on the overall company. The projected FY28 break-even for emerging businesses therefore represents an important milestone in the company’s path toward stronger consolidated profitability.
Dependence on Logistics Partners Remains a Risk
Shiprocket’s expansion is also accompanied by operational risks.
The company relies on third-party courier companies rather than owning its own nationwide delivery network. It works with dozens of courier partners, but a small group handles the majority of shipment volumes. According to an analysis of its financial disclosures, five courier partners accounted for 84.5% of shipment volumes in FY26.
This concentration could leave Shiprocket exposed to changes in shipping prices, surcharges or service availability.
The company’s value proposition depends partly on aggregating multiple logistics providers and giving merchants a single technology layer through which they can manage shipping. Maintaining attractive pricing and service levels will therefore remain important as competition in e-commerce logistics intensifies.
Power Merchants Remain Important
Shiprocket’s most valuable customers are its so-called power merchants, defined as sellers completing more than 100 transactions a month.
These merchants represented only around 4.7% of the company’s merchant base in FY26, but generated nearly 89% of revenue, according to the financial analysis of its IPO disclosures. Their number increased only marginally over the past three years, raising questions about the company’s ability to expand its highest-value customer segment.
At the same time, Shiprocket’s customer acquisition economics have improved. Core customer acquisition cost declined to approximately ₹2,829 in FY26, from ₹4,101 in FY24, indicating that the platform has become more efficient at acquiring merchants.
Shiprocket’s Next Phase
The company’s IPO is therefore less about a mature logistics business and more about whether its profitable core can successfully fund a broader commerce infrastructure platform.
The projected break-even of new businesses in FY28 is central to that strategy. If the emerging segments achieve profitability while continuing to grow rapidly, Shiprocket could improve consolidated margins substantially over the following years.
The projections point toward adjusted EBITDA increasing nearly 18-fold between FY26 and FY28 and then more than quadrupling again by FY31.
Looking Ahead
Shiprocket enters the public market with a business that has two distinct characteristics: a core domestic shipping operation that is already generating meaningful operating profits, and a collection of newer businesses that are still consuming capital but are expected to become profitable by FY28. The company’s internal projections point to rapid revenue expansion and a sharp improvement in adjusted EBITDA margins over the next five years.
Looking ahead, the key test for Shiprocket will be whether it can translate those projections into sustained financial performance after listing. The success of its newer businesses, continued growth among high-value merchants, control over logistics costs and the ability to maintain operating leverage will determine whether the company can evolve from an e-commerce logistics platform into a broader technology-led commerce infrastructure business.
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