Saudi Aramco plans to maximise oil production during the fourth quarter of 2026 as Saudi Arabia increases crude shipments through its eastern Gulf terminals and western Red Sea export route. CEO Amin Nasser said the company would continue raising supplies using all available export routes after shipments recovered towards pre-conflict levels in October. The announcement came during Aramco’s third-quarter earnings call on November 3.
Saudi crude exports reached approximately 7 million barrels per day in October, according to tanker-tracking and satellite data cited by Bloomberg. The recovery follows months of disruption to shipping routes and energy infrastructure amid the regional conflict. Aramco is now seeking to increase production, strengthen its export network and prepare for higher global oil demand, although the company acknowledged that shipments remain uneven and security risks continue.
Aramco targets higher production in the fourth quarter
Aramco’s decision to maximise output reflects its effort to restore oil supply after disruptions affected production, transportation and exports during the conflict.
Nasser said the company would continue increasing supplies from both the Red Sea and the Gulf. He described September as a strong month for exports and indicated that the company expected the momentum to continue through the final quarter of 2026.
According to Bloomberg, Saudi crude shipments reached approximately 7 million barrels per day in October, bringing exports close to pre-war levels. The figure was based on a combination of tanker-tracking data, satellite imagery and information from energy analytics firms Kpler and Vortexa.
However, Nasser cautioned that exports had not yet stabilised completely. Shipments remain uneven because tankers sometimes travel in groups through security-sensitive maritime corridors.
Aramco is therefore seeking to use both its traditional Gulf export facilities and its alternative Red Sea route to maintain supply.
Saudi Arabia uses two major export routes
Saudi Arabia has two important routes for moving crude oil to international markets.
The first is its traditional eastern export corridor, which connects production and processing facilities to terminals along the Persian Gulf. This route provides access to major international shipping lanes but is exposed to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
The second is the East-West Pipeline, which transports crude from eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. It allows the kingdom to export oil without sending every shipment through the Strait of Hormuz.
The pipeline has become particularly important during the regional conflict.
| Export infrastructure | Location | Strategic importance |
|---|---|---|
| Ras Tanura terminal | Persian Gulf coast | Major traditional crude export facility |
| Jubail export facilities | Eastern Saudi Arabia | Supports oil and petroleum product shipments |
| East-West Pipeline | Eastern Saudi Arabia to Yanbu | Moves crude towards the Red Sea |
| Yanbu terminal | Red Sea coast | Provides an alternative international export route |
The resumption of the East-West Pipeline has allowed Saudi Arabia to increase shipments through Yanbu while continuing to use Gulf export facilities.
Aramco is also examining additional export routes and overseas storage capacity to reduce its dependence on individual shipping corridors.
Aramco has production capacity of 12 million barrels per day
Aramco has maintained that it can increase production substantially if market conditions require additional supply.
The company has a maximum sustainable crude oil production capacity of approximately 12 million barrels per day.
Nasser previously said Aramco could make this capacity available within days, depending on operational requirements.
However, maximum sustainable capacity should not be confused with actual daily production. The company will decide how much oil to produce based on market demand, available infrastructure, export conditions and broader production arrangements.
During the third quarter, Aramco’s oil and other liquids output increased 15% quarter-on-quarter as it worked to restore exports. Nevertheless, production remained below the corresponding period last year.
The company’s latest strategy is to increase output while ensuring that additional production can be transported and delivered to customers.
Higher oil prices and refining margins lift Aramco’s Q3 earnings
Aramco’s production and export strategy comes alongside a strong third-quarter financial performance.
The company reported net income of approximately $36.3 billion for Q3 2026, compared with $26.9 billion in the same quarter last year.
However, the headline increase was partly influenced by the company’s exit from a joint venture. Adjusted net income, which provides a better indication of underlying operating performance, increased 9% to $31.2 billion from $28.6 billion.
Saudi Aramco Q3 2026 financial performance
| Financial metric | Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | $36.3 billion | $26.9 billion |
| Adjusted net income | $31.2 billion | $28.6 billion |
| Operating cash flow | $38.7 billion | $36.1 billion |
| Free cash flow | $28.2 billion | $23.6 billion |
| Gearing ratio | 5.5% | — |
The company also reported a significant improvement in its downstream business, which includes refining and chemicals.
Downstream adjusted earnings before interest and tax increased 234% year-on-year, supported by stronger refining margins.
Aramco’s average oil selling price also increased to $95.20 per barrel from $70.10 a year earlier, according to reporting by the Associated Press.
The company declared a third-quarter base dividend of $21.9 billion, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, to be paid during the fourth quarter.
These results demonstrate how higher oil prices and stronger refining margins have supported financial performance even as production and transportation faced disruption. Aramco+2
Aramco expects global oil demand to increase
Nasser also expressed confidence in the longer-term outlook for oil consumption.
He expects liquids demand to increase by approximately 2.4 million barrels per day next year. He also said an additional 2 million barrels per day could be required when markets return to normal to replenish inventories depleted during the disruption.
The inventory factor is important because restoring normal shipping and production conditions does not immediately rebuild global oil reserves.
Countries and commercial buyers may need to replenish crude inventories after drawing down existing stocks to manage supply shortages.
Aramco has warned that global storage levels are extremely low following supply interruptions and strategic stock releases.
This could create additional demand for crude once transportation routes become more reliable.
However, the company’s demand outlook is a forecast, and actual consumption will depend on economic growth, oil prices, energy policies and geopolitical developments.
Pipeline expansion and overseas storage become priorities
The conflict has highlighted the importance of having multiple ways to transport crude oil.
Aramco is exploring an expansion of its East-West Pipeline, which currently has a capacity of up to 7 million barrels per day.
The company has previously discussed increasing its capacity to approximately 10 million barrels per day. Such an expansion would provide additional flexibility to transport crude towards the Red Sea.
The company is also exploring additional overseas storage facilities and alternative export routes.
These investments could help Aramco maintain customer deliveries during periods of disruption and reduce the operational risks associated with relying heavily on a single shipping corridor.
Nasser has also highlighted the need to strengthen the company’s global supply network through additional storage and transportation arrangements.
The strategy is not limited to increasing production. It also focuses on ensuring that crude can reach international buyers despite interruptions to shipping infrastructure. International+2
Global oil markets remain exposed to supply disruptions
Saudi Arabia’s export recovery is important for international oil markets because the kingdom is one of the world’s largest crude producers and exporters.
When Saudi shipments increase, additional physical supply can become available to refiners and other buyers. This can help ease pressure on markets that have experienced supply shortages.
However, higher exports do not mean that global energy risks have disappeared.
Nasser has warned that attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure have increased transportation costs and complicated international supply chains.
He said more than 130 attacks on tankers had been reported, mainly involving very large crude carriers. Freight rates for these vessels had increased more than 15 times compared with a year earlier.
The Strait of Hormuz remains particularly important because it is a major transit route for global oil and gas shipments.
Disruptions around the strait can affect crude deliveries, insurance costs, shipping schedules and the price of energy products.
For oil-importing countries such as India, these developments matter because higher crude prices and transportation costs can increase the import bill, put pressure on the rupee and complicate inflation management.
The Bigger Picture
Aramco’s plan to maximise production reflects Saudi Arabia’s effort to restore its position as a reliable global oil supplier after months of conflict-related disruptions. The recovery of exports towards 7 million barrels per day demonstrates the importance of the kingdom’s alternative Red Sea route alongside its traditional Gulf terminals. The company’s focus on additional pipeline capacity, overseas storage and alternative shipping routes also shows that energy security is becoming a major investment priority.
Nevertheless, production capacity and actual export volumes are different measures. Higher output will translate into additional global supply only if transportation infrastructure remains operational and shipping routes are accessible. Oil prices will continue to depend on global demand, available inventories, OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical developments. Aramco’s expansion plans could improve supply flexibility, but they cannot eliminate the risks facing international energy markets.
Looking Ahead
Investors and energy-market participants will monitor Saudi production figures, tanker movements and export volumes during the fourth quarter. The ability to maintain shipments through both the Gulf and Red Sea routes will be particularly important. Any further disruption to pipelines, terminals or shipping corridors could affect the pace of the recovery.
For Aramco, the immediate priority is to maximise production while maintaining reliable deliveries and protecting its infrastructure. Its longer-term strategy includes increasing pipeline flexibility and expanding overseas storage. If global demand grows as Nasser expects, the company’s production capacity and export network could become increasingly important to international oil supply.
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