SpaceX Stock Rises, Pushing Elon Musk Back Above $1 Trillion

SpaceX shares jumped nearly 8% on October 5, closing at $171.09 and reaching their highest level since June, in a rally that pushed Elon Musk’s estimated fortune back above $1 trillion. The gain came as investors responded to renewed optimism around SpaceX’s space, satellite internet and artificial intelligence businesses, while Morgan Stanley reiterated a bullish view on the stock.

According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk’s fortune increased by about $65 billion on Monday to roughly $1.04 trillion as SpaceX and Tesla shares gained. Musk had previously crossed the trillion-dollar threshold after SpaceX’s record-breaking June IPO, but lost the status after the stock fell sharply from its post-listing highs.

Key takeaways

• SpaceX shares closed at $171.09 on October 5, up about 7.6%.
• The stock reached its highest closing level since June.
• SpaceX shares have rebounded roughly 58% from their early-August low.
• Elon Musk’s estimated fortune rose to around $1.04 trillion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
• Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating and a $300 price target.
• The bank argues SpaceX looks expensive on conventional valuation measures but relatively inexpensive when expected growth is considered.
• Upcoming catalysts include Starship Flight 15, third-quarter earnings and additional AI/compute developments.
• Musk’s wealth remains highly concentrated in SpaceX and Tesla.
• SpaceX’s stock is still well below its June record close of $201.80.

SpaceX stock jumps nearly 8%

SpaceX shares closed Monday at $171.09, gaining about 7.6% in a single session.

That pushed the stock to its strongest closing level since June, when SpaceX became a publicly traded company.

The move is particularly notable because the stock had experienced a substantial post-IPO decline.

SpaceX shares had fallen to around $105 in early August before beginning a strong recovery. From that low, the stock has gained roughly 58%.

Despite the rebound, the shares remain below their June record.

SpaceX closed at $201.80 on June 16, meaning Monday’s close was still roughly 15% below that level.

The latest rally therefore represents a recovery from the post-IPO sell-off rather than a return to the company’s previous peak.

Musk becomes a trillionaire again

The rise in SpaceX shares had a direct impact on Elon Musk’s wealth because he owns a huge portion of the company.

A regulatory filing reviewed by Reuters showed Musk held a 48.4% economic stake in SpaceX as of June 30, consisting of shares and options across different classes. He also controlled more than 82% of the company’s voting power at the time.

The rise in SpaceX shares therefore translates into tens of billions of dollars in changes to the paper value of Musk’s holdings.

Business Standard, citing the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, reported that Musk’s fortune increased by approximately $65 billion on Monday to around $1.04 trillion. His SpaceX and Tesla holdings together represent more than 98% of his net worth according to the index.

That concentration also explains why Musk’s wealth can change dramatically in a single trading session.

Musk had already crossed $1 trillion after the IPO

Musk first crossed the trillion-dollar threshold earlier in 2026 following SpaceX’s historic IPO.

The company priced its June offering at $135 per share, raising approximately $75 billion and giving SpaceX an IPO valuation of around $1.77 trillion.

The stock subsequently surged and pushed SpaceX’s market value above $2 trillion.

But that rally did not last.

Investors became increasingly concerned about the company’s enormous valuation, and SpaceX shares fell sharply during the weeks following the IPO.

Musk’s net worth consequently dropped below the trillion-dollar mark.

The latest rally reverses part of that decline.

Why is SpaceX stock rising again?

The latest rally has several potential drivers.

One of the most important is renewed confidence in SpaceX’s future growth opportunities.

The company is no longer viewed purely as a rocket-launch business.

SpaceX combines several large businesses and growth opportunities, including:

• Falcon launch services
• Starlink satellite internet
• Starship
• satellite communications
• artificial intelligence and computing
• AI-related infrastructure
• potential future space-based technology

Investors are increasingly trying to value these businesses together rather than treating SpaceX as a traditional aerospace company.

Morgan Stanley calls SpaceX ‘cheap and getting cheaper’

The immediate catalyst for Monday’s rally was a bullish research note from Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas.

Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating on SpaceX and maintained a $300 price target.

At around $159 when the report was issued, that target represented roughly 90% upside. The stock subsequently moved significantly higher on Monday.

Morgan Stanley’s argument is unusual because it does not claim SpaceX has a low conventional valuation.

Instead, the bank argues that the company’s expected growth changes the calculation.

At around $159, Morgan Stanley estimated that SpaceX traded at approximately 30 times expected 2028 enterprise value to EBIT, compared with roughly 16 times for a group of large AI-related companies.

On the surface, that looks expensive.

But when growth is incorporated, Morgan Stanley calculated a 2028 EV/EBIT-to-growth ratio of about 0.3, compared with approximately 0.5 for its comparison group.

The argument is therefore that SpaceX’s headline valuation may obscure the growth embedded in businesses that are still developing.

The AI opportunity is becoming central to the valuation

SpaceX’s investment story has changed considerably.

Starlink remains an important part of the business, while the rocket operation provides the company’s core launch infrastructure.

But artificial intelligence is becoming a potentially significant third pillar.

Morgan Stanley’s analysis suggests that investors may be valuing the company’s space and connectivity businesses relatively fully while assigning comparatively little value to its AI opportunity.

The bank’s analysis puts roughly $127 per share of value on SpaceX’s Space and Connectivity businesses at the cited stock price, leaving about $32 per share for AI-related activities.

That AI component could include enterprise computing, neocloud contracts, chip-related activities and other AI initiatives.

This is one of the most important assumptions behind the bullish thesis.

If the AI business develops rapidly, SpaceX could eventually look less like an aerospace company and more like a diversified technology platform.

Compute pricing could have a huge impact

Morgan Stanley has highlighted the economics of AI computing as another potential catalyst.

According to the analyst’s calculations, consensus assumptions use average compute pricing of around $17.60 per watt across approximately 4.1 gigawatts of capacity.

Every additional $10 per watt could theoretically add more than $40 billion to revenue under those assumptions.

The bank said some recent short-term neocloud contracts have been priced at approximately $30 to $50 per watt.

This illustrates why investors are watching SpaceX’s AI operations so closely.

Small changes in pricing or capacity could produce very large changes in potential revenue estimates.

However, these are analyst calculations and scenarios rather than guaranteed SpaceX revenue.

Starship is the biggest near-term catalyst

The next major event investors are watching is Starship Flight 15.

Morgan Stanley expects the flight in late October or early November and believes a successful “ship catch” could become one of the biggest positive catalysts for SpaceX since its IPO.

Starship is critical to SpaceX’s long-term strategy because the company wants the vehicle to become substantially more reusable and capable than its existing Falcon system.

Greater reusability could potentially reduce launch costs and increase launch frequency.

But the technology is extremely complex.

A failed or delayed test could therefore produce the opposite market reaction.

That makes Starship both a major opportunity and a major source of execution risk.

SpaceX’s previous Starship test improved sentiment

The latest bullish commentary follows progress during Starship Flight 14.

According to Morgan Stanley’s analysis, the flight reached low Earth orbit and deployed Starlink satellites, providing another demonstration of the system’s capabilities.

The next stage is more ambitious.

Investors are particularly interested in the development of controlled recovery and increasingly rapid reuse.

The ability to demonstrate reliable reuse would strengthen the economic case for Starship, rather than merely proving that the vehicle can reach orbit.

Starlink remains a major part of SpaceX

While Starship receives much of the attention, Starlink remains a critical component of SpaceX’s current business.

Starlink provides satellite broadband using a large constellation of low-Earth-orbit satellites.

Its recurring subscription revenue gives SpaceX a business model that is different from traditional launch companies.

The combination is strategically important.

Falcon and Starship provide launch capabilities, while Starlink creates a recurring communications business.

The company is therefore building an ecosystem in which its launch infrastructure can support the deployment and expansion of its own satellite network.

SpaceX’s IPO changed how investors value the company

Before June 2026, SpaceX’s valuation was largely based on private-market transactions and funding rounds.

The IPO changed that.

Public investors now receive regular financial information and can buy or sell the shares every trading day.

That creates much greater price transparency but also makes SpaceX vulnerable to short-term changes in investor sentiment.

The post-IPO experience demonstrates this clearly.

The stock reached a June record close of $201.80, fell dramatically, and then recovered to $171.09.

Such volatility is unusual for a company with a market value exceeding $2 trillion.

SpaceX has already demonstrated strong financial growth

SpaceX’s first quarterly results as a public company also contributed to the changing investment narrative.

Reuters reported in August that the company posted more than 90% revenue growth in its first reported quarter following the IPO, while capital spending also increased dramatically.

Rapid revenue growth supports the bullish argument.

But heavy capital expenditure creates another consideration.

SpaceX is simultaneously investing in rockets, satellites, AI infrastructure and other large-scale projects.

That means the company may require enormous amounts of capital even while revenue grows rapidly.

Growth comes with huge capital requirements

SpaceX’s ambitions require infrastructure on an extraordinary scale.

Starship development requires launch facilities and testing infrastructure.

Starlink requires satellites, ground infrastructure and launch capacity.

AI computing requires expensive chips, power and data-centre infrastructure.

Those investments can eventually create enormous revenue opportunities, but they also require substantial upfront capital.

This is one reason investors should not look only at SpaceX’s revenue growth.

Capital expenditure, cash generation and financing requirements will be equally important.

Musk’s wealth is unusually concentrated

The latest trillionaire milestone also highlights a broader issue.

Musk’s wealth is unusually dependent on the market values of just two companies.

Bloomberg estimates that SpaceX and Tesla account for more than 98% of his fortune.

That means a strong day for both stocks can add tens of billions of dollars to his estimated wealth.

Conversely, a major decline in either company can rapidly reduce his net worth.

The trillionaire label therefore represents the market value of his equity holdings rather than cash sitting in a bank account.

SpaceX stock remains below its June high

The latest rally should also be placed in context.

Metric	Figure
IPO price	$135
June 16 record close	$201.80
Early-August low	~$105
October 5 close	$171.09
Morgan Stanley target	$300
Rebound from August low	~58%
Approx. decline from June record	~15%

The numbers show why the current rally can be interpreted in two ways.

For bulls, the recovery from around $105 demonstrates that investors are rediscovering SpaceX’s growth potential.

For more cautious investors, the stock remains below its June high and has already risen sharply from its August low.

The recent momentum therefore does not eliminate valuation risk.

What could push SpaceX toward $300?

Morgan Stanley identifies several potential catalysts.

1. Starship progress

A successful Starship Flight 15, particularly a major improvement in recovery and reuse, could strengthen the long-term economic case.

2. AI product launches

New AI products could help demonstrate that SpaceX’s AI ambitions are capable of generating meaningful revenue.

3. Neocloud contracts

Additional large computing contracts could validate the company’s AI infrastructure strategy.

4. Higher compute pricing

If SpaceX can achieve pricing above current consensus assumptions, revenue estimates could rise substantially.

5. Starlink growth

Continued subscriber and revenue growth would strengthen the recurring-revenue component of the valuation.

The risks are equally significant

SpaceX’s bullish case is built around several technologies that are still developing.

Starship could experience testing failures or delays.

AI monetisation could take longer than expected.

Compute infrastructure could require more capital than anticipated.

Regulatory approvals could slow expansion.

Competition in satellite communications and AI infrastructure could increase.

There is also dilution risk if SpaceX needs to raise substantial additional capital.

Morgan Stanley itself identified slower Starship reuse, weaker enterprise AI monetisation, higher compute costs, longer time-to-power, funding needs and regulatory delays as potential risks.

The valuation debate is far from over

The most important question for SpaceX investors is not whether the company has extraordinary technology.

It clearly does.

The question is whether the current share price already reflects a large portion of that future success.

At more than $2 trillion in market value, investors are not buying a traditional aerospace company.

They are buying expectations of massive growth across multiple industries.

That creates a high bar for execution.

If Starship, Starlink and AI all perform strongly, the valuation could potentially be supported by future earnings growth.

If one or more of those businesses disappoint, the stock could remain highly volatile.

The Bigger Picture

SpaceX’s latest rally illustrates how the public-market story around Elon Musk’s companies is evolving. SpaceX is increasingly being valued not simply as a rocket company but as a combination of launch infrastructure, satellite communications and artificial intelligence. Morgan Stanley’s bullish thesis depends heavily on this broader “sum of the parts” approach, particularly the possibility that investors are underestimating AI-related earnings.

Musk’s return to trillionaire status is therefore more of a consequence than the core business story. His fortune rose because the market value of his SpaceX and Tesla holdings increased. The more important development for investors is whether SpaceX can convert its ambitious technology roadmap into recurring revenue, stronger margins and sustainable cash generation.

Looking Ahead

The next few weeks could be unusually important for SpaceX’s stock. Starship Flight 15, third-quarter financial results and potential AI and neocloud announcements could provide investors with new information about the company’s ability to execute on its most ambitious growth plans. A successful Starship milestone could strengthen the bullish case, while setbacks could quickly revive valuation concerns.

For Musk, the trillionaire milestone is likely to remain closely tied to daily movements in SpaceX and Tesla. For SpaceX shareholders, however, the longer-term question is much bigger: whether a company built around rockets and satellites can successfully transform itself into a diversified space, connectivity and AI infrastructure giant capable of justifying a multitrillion-dollar valuation.