Apple could increase India’s share of global iPhone production to 30-35% over the next five years, up from about 25% currently, as the company deepens its manufacturing presence outside China. The projected shift comes as John Ternus prepares to take over as Apple CEO on September 1, with India expected to play a larger role in the company’s global supply chain under his hardware-focused leadership.
The expansion could push Apple’s annual iPhone production value in India from roughly $25 billion in FY26 to $40-45 billion by FY31, according to a Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) official cited by Business Standard. The move would build on a manufacturing ecosystem that has expanded rapidly under India’s production-linked incentive program, with Apple already accounting for about one in every four iPhones assembled globally.
Apple May Shift Up To 35% Of iPhone Production To India
Apple is expected to increase India’s share of its global iPhone manufacturing from approximately 25% to 30-35% within five years.
The projection comes at an important transition point for Apple, with Tim Cook stepping down as CEO and becoming executive chairman on September 1, while John Ternus takes over as chief executive.
India’s role is no longer limited to being an alternative manufacturing location.
The country is increasingly becoming a core part of Apple’s global production and export strategy.
Apple’s India Manufacturing Plan
| Metric | Current / FY26 | Potential FY31 |
|---|---|---|
| India’s share of global iPhone production | ~25% | 30-35% |
| Annual iPhone production value in India | ~$25 billion | ~$40-45 billion |
| India-produced iPhones | ~1 in 4 globally | Up to ~1 in 3 |
| Key manufacturing partners | Foxconn, Tata Electronics | Expanded ecosystem |
| Major strategic objective | China diversification | Deeper global supply-chain role |
The estimates are based on comments from a MeitY official and are not a formal Apple production target.
India’s iPhone Production Has Expanded Rapidly
Apple’s manufacturing presence in India has grown dramatically over the past few years.
During the five-year PLI period from FY22 through FY26, Apple assembled iPhones in India with a cumulative production value of approximately ₹6.02 trillion, according to government data cited by Business Standard.
That was roughly 80% above Apple’s cumulative PLI production commitment of ₹3.35 trillion.
Apple’s PLI Production Performance
| Period / Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| PLI period | FY22-FY26 |
| Government-linked production target | ₹3.35 trillion |
| Actual / estimated production | ₹6.02 trillion |
| Target overachievement | ~80% |
| FY26 estimated production value | ₹2.27 trillion |
| FY26 estimated iPhone units | ~55 million |
The acceleration has been particularly strong in the final two years of the PLI program.
Apple Produced About 55 Million iPhones In India In FY26
Apple’s Indian manufacturing operations reached an estimated 55 million iPhone units in FY26, according to government-linked estimates.
That production increase was driven partly by new factories operated by Tata Electronics and Foxconn, which expanded Apple’s manufacturing capacity in the country.
Apple went from three dedicated production facilities to five during the PLI period.
India iPhone Production Growth
FY22
$2.5B production value
│
▼
FY23
$7.5B+
│
▼
FY24
$13.8B
│
▼
FY25
~$21B
│
▼
FY26
~$25B+
│
▼
FY31 potential
$40-45B
The progression shows how quickly India has moved from a relatively small assembly base to a major Apple manufacturing hub.
India Is Already Apple’s Second-Largest Manufacturing Base
China remains overwhelmingly important to Apple’s supply chain.
Around 80% of Apple’s global suppliers are based in China, according to the Business Standard report, and China continues to account for the majority of iPhone assembly.
However, India’s share has increased substantially.
Apple now produces approximately one in every four iPhones in India, compared with around 95% of iPhones being produced in China in 2016.
Apple Manufacturing Shift
| Year | Approx. Share Of iPhones Produced In India |
|---|---|
| 2016 | Minimal |
| 2025 | ~23-25% |
| FY26 | ~25% |
| Potential FY31 | 30-35% |
The shift represents a significant change in Apple’s manufacturing geography within just a decade.
China’s Manufacturing Dominance Is Still Intact
The move to India should not be interpreted as Apple abandoning China.
China continues to have a much deeper supplier ecosystem, with hundreds of companies supporting Apple’s manufacturing operations.
The Business Standard report said roughly 80% of Apple’s more than 200 global suppliers are based in China.
That depth is difficult to replicate quickly.
China Vs India
| Factor | China | India |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier ecosystem | Very deep | Rapidly expanding |
| iPhone assembly | Dominant | ~25% currently |
| Labor ecosystem | Highly mature | Developing |
| Component localization | Higher | Improving |
| Export role | Established | Growing rapidly |
| Strategic role | Core manufacturing hub | Diversification + growth hub |
Apple therefore appears to be pursuing China plus India, rather than a complete China-to-India replacement.
New Apple CEO John Ternus Could Accelerate India’s Role
John Ternus takes over as Apple’s CEO on September 1.
Unlike Cook, whose background is strongly associated with operations and supply-chain management, Ternus has spent much of his career in Apple’s hardware organization.
That could influence how Apple develops its manufacturing ecosystem in India.
Forrester analyst Dipanjan Chatterjee said Ternus’ hardware and engineering background could help Apple move beyond simply assembling products and toward building a deeper manufacturing ecosystem in India.
Why Ternus Matters To India
John Ternus
│
▼
Hardware + engineering background
│
▼
Greater focus on product development
│
▼
India supplier ecosystem
│
├── Precision engineering
├── Components
├── Assembly
└── Product localization
│
▼
Deeper Apple supply chain in India
This could represent the next stage of Apple’s India strategy.
Apple Wants More Than Final Assembly
The next phase of Apple’s India expansion could involve greater participation by Indian suppliers in components and precision engineering.
Apple has already developed a network of roughly 40 companies in India, including large domestic groups such as Tata and the Aditya Birla Group.
The government hopes this ecosystem can eventually support other advanced manufacturing sectors, including aerospace, robotics and defense.
Apple’s Growing India Ecosystem
| Area | Developing Role |
|---|---|
| Final assembly | Established |
| Component manufacturing | Expanding |
| Precision engineering | Increasing |
| Supplier development | Expanding |
| Export logistics | Established |
| Product development | Potential next phase |
| Advanced manufacturing | Longer-term opportunity |
A deeper ecosystem would make India more valuable to Apple beyond simply providing assembly capacity.
Apple’s India Production Could Reach $45 Billion
If the government’s projection is achieved, Apple’s annual production value in India could rise to $40-45 billion by FY31.
That would represent an increase of approximately 60-80% from the estimated $25 billion level in FY26.
Potential Production Growth
| Metric | FY26 | FY31 Potential |
|---|---|---|
| Production value | ~$25B | $40-45B |
| Increase | — | $15-20B |
| Percentage increase | — | ~60-80% |
| Global production share | ~25% | 30-35% |
The projected increase would make India an even more important part of Apple’s global manufacturing footprint.
US Exports Are Driving India’s Growth
One of the biggest catalysts for India’s rise has been Apple’s exports to the United States.
Apple increasingly shifted production capacity from China to India for the U.S. market as tariff differences made Indian manufacturing more attractive.
Business Standard reported that Apple shipped a growing share of its Indian production to the United States, helping push India’s manufacturing value sharply higher in FY26.
India’s iPhone Export Growth
| Indicator | Earlier Period | FY26 |
|---|---|---|
| iPhone production value | Lower | ~$25B+ |
| US smartphone exports, Apr-Dec | $5.04B FY25 | $14.1B FY26 |
| Increase | — | ~182% |
The sharp increase demonstrates how India’s manufacturing role is increasingly tied to global exports rather than only domestic demand.
Apple’s India Exports Are Approaching Forex Neutrality
Apple’s manufacturing operations are also moving closer to becoming foreign-exchange neutral or positive for India.
According to a senior MeitY official cited by Business Standard, Apple produced iPhones worth about $26 billion in India in FY26, of which $21.5 billion, or 83%, was exported.
The import bill for components and other inputs was approximately $22.3 billion.
Apple’s India Forex Position
| FY26 Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total iPhone production | ~$26 billion |
| Exports | ~$21.5 billion |
| Export share | ~83% |
| Component and other imports | ~$22.3 billion |
| Position | Near forex-neutral |
The same official estimated that Apple could reach an export share of around 85% in FY27, potentially moving toward a forex-positive position as localization and scale improve.
Tata Electronics Is Becoming More Important
Tata Electronics has emerged as a major Apple manufacturing partner in India.
The company operates iPhone production facilities and is expected to take a larger role in Pro-series manufacturing.
Recent reporting said Foxconn continues to handle the majority of production, while Tata is expected to increase its share of Pro-model manufacturing.
Apple Manufacturing Partners In India
| Partner | Role |
|---|---|
| Foxconn | Major iPhone assembler |
| Tata Electronics | Major assembler and expanding supplier |
| Other Apple vendors | Components and manufacturing |
| Aditya Birla-linked ecosystem | Supplier development |
| Indian precision-engineering firms | Emerging supply-chain role |
The expansion of Indian-owned suppliers is strategically important because it reduces Apple’s dependence on a small number of foreign manufacturing partners.
India Is Becoming A Major iPhone Export Hub
India’s importance to Apple is not based solely on the number of phones sold domestically.
The country has become a significant export base.
During FY22-FY26, Apple produced iPhones in India worth approximately $71 billion, of which around $55.5 billion was exported, according to Business Standard.
Five-Year Apple India Production
| FY22-FY26 | Approx. Value |
|---|---|
| Total iPhone production | ~$71 billion |
| Exports | ~$55.5 billion |
| Domestic sales | ~$15.5 billion |
| Export share | ~78% |
This demonstrates that Apple’s India manufacturing strategy is primarily linked to global supply-chain diversification.
India Is Also A Fast-Growing iPhone Market
Manufacturing is only one side of Apple’s India strategy.
India is also becoming an increasingly important consumer market.
The super-premium smartphone segment currently accounts for approximately 6% of global iPhone shipments, according to the Business Standard report, while India’s premium segment has been growing rapidly.
Apple has become the market leader by value in India and is among the top five smartphone vendors by volume.
Apple’s India Opportunity
Manufacturing growth
+
Premium smartphone demand
+
Rising incomes
+
Financing / trade-in programs
│
▼
India becomes strategic market
│
▼
Production + consumption ecosystem
This combination makes India more attractive to Apple than a location that only offers low-cost assembly.
India’s New ₹62,500 Crore Incentive Package Could Help
The Indian government has introduced a new ₹62,500 crore incentive package for mobile-phone manufacturing covering the next five years.
Apple’s vendors are expected to be among the major beneficiaries.
The government has also extended tax exemptions for contract manufacturing until March 31, 2041, according to Business Standard.
Government Support
| Policy | Details |
|---|---|
| New mobile manufacturing package | ₹62,500 crore |
| Duration | Five years |
| Contract-manufacturing tax exemption | Extended to March 31, 2041 |
| Previous mobile PLI | ₹30,000 crore |
| Main objective | Expand electronics manufacturing |
The new incentives could help offset India’s cost disadvantage compared with China.
India Still Has A Manufacturing Cost Disadvantage
Despite its rapid growth, India remains more expensive than China in some areas of smartphone production.
Business Standard estimates India’s cost disadvantage at around 10-14%, partly offset by government incentives.
The earlier PLI scheme provided financial incentives of roughly 4-6%, helping narrow the gap.
India-China Manufacturing Economics
| Factor | India | China |
|---|---|---|
| Labor cost | Competitive | Higher than some alternatives but mature |
| Supplier depth | Developing | Very deep |
| Logistics ecosystem | Improving | Highly mature |
| Cost disadvantage | ~10-14% | Baseline |
| Government support | PLI / new incentives | Established industrial ecosystem |
| Localization | Rising | Much higher |
Maintaining competitive economics will therefore remain important if India wants to capture more than one-third of Apple’s global production.
Apple Has Already Shifted Production Away From China
The current expansion is part of a longer diversification process.
Estimates from Smart Analytics Global cited by Moneycontrol show China’s share of global iPhone manufacturing falling from 83% in 2024 to 74% in 2025, while India’s share increased from 14% to 23%. The firm projected India’s share could reach 28% in 2026.
Global iPhone Manufacturing Shift
| Country | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 Estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 83% | 74% | Lower |
| India | 14% | 23% | ~28% |
| Other locations | ~3% | ~3% | Balance |
Different estimates use different production periods and methodologies, so these figures should be viewed as directional rather than directly comparable with the MeitY production-share estimate.
Apple Still Faces China Supply-Chain Risks
Apple cannot quickly recreate China’s manufacturing ecosystem elsewhere.
China provides a dense network of suppliers, skilled workers, logistics providers and component manufacturers.
The company therefore needs to balance three competing priorities:
- China’s manufacturing depth
- India’s growth potential
- U.S. geopolitical and investment expectations
Counterpoint Research analyst Tarun Pathak described this balance as a continuing negotiation for Ternus.
Apple’s Three-Way Supply-Chain Challenge
Apple
│
┌────────┼────────┐
▼ ▼ ▼
China India US
│ │ │
Supplier Growth Investment
depth +scale +politics
│ │ │
└────────┼────────┘
▼
Global supply-chain
optimization
No single country can currently replace everything China provides.
The Shift Could Create Hundreds Of Thousands Of Jobs
Apple’s manufacturing expansion has already generated substantial employment in India.
Business Standard reported that Apple’s ecosystem created around 250,000 direct jobs during the five-year PLI period, with women accounting for a significant share of the workforce.
The expansion of suppliers could create additional jobs in manufacturing, engineering, logistics and component production.
Potential Economic Impact
| Area | Impact |
|---|---|
| Direct factory jobs | Already substantial |
| Supplier jobs | Growing |
| Women’s employment | Significant |
| Logistics | Higher demand |
| Precision engineering | New opportunities |
| Component manufacturing | Ecosystem expansion |
| Exports | Major growth driver |
This makes Apple’s manufacturing strategy important not only for the company but also for India’s industrial policy.
India’s Electronics Ecosystem Could Expand Beyond Apple
The government’s broader objective is to use Apple’s supply-chain expansion to build capabilities that can serve other advanced industries.
Precision engineering and electronics suppliers could eventually support sectors such as aerospace, robotics and defense.
That could make Apple’s presence a catalyst for broader industrial development.
Apple suppliers
│
▼
Precision engineering
│
├── Smartphones
├── Aerospace
├── Robotics
└── Defense
│
▼
Broader electronics ecosystem
The long-term benefit for India could therefore extend beyond iPhone assembly.
Trade Policy Remains A Major Variable
Apple’s manufacturing strategy has been heavily influenced by international trade policy.
The company has already benefited from periods when Indian exports faced lower tariffs than Chinese products.
At the same time, changes in U.S. tariff policy can alter the economics of shifting production.
This means the 30-35% target is not simply an engineering or capacity decision.
It also depends on global trade conditions.
Apple’s India Strategy Is Entering A New Phase
The first stage of Apple’s India strategy was largely about establishing assembly.
The second stage has focused on scaling production and exports.
The potential third stage is much broader: building a deeper supplier ecosystem and integrating India into product development.
Three Phases Of Apple’s India Strategy
| Phase | Focus |
|---|---|
| Phase 1 | Establish iPhone assembly |
| Phase 2 | Scale production + exports |
| Phase 3 | Deeper components + engineering + product development |
John Ternus’ appointment comes as Apple moves toward this third phase.
The Bigger Picture
Apple’s potential shift of 30-35% of global iPhone production to India over the next five years would represent a major transformation in the company’s manufacturing footprint. India already accounts for roughly one in every four iPhones assembled globally, and government estimates suggest annual iPhone production value could rise from about $25 billion in FY26 to $40-45 billion by FY31.
The move is not simply about reducing dependence on China. Apple is building India into a broader manufacturing ecosystem involving Foxconn, Tata Electronics and dozens of other suppliers, while the Indian government is supporting the sector with a new ₹62,500 crore incentive package. At the same time, China retains a significant advantage in supplier depth and manufacturing maturity, meaning Apple will likely continue to rely heavily on both countries rather than immediately replacing one with the other.
Looking Ahead
John Ternus’ arrival as Apple CEO could accelerate the next stage of India’s role in Apple’s supply chain. His hardware and engineering background may encourage Apple to move beyond final assembly toward greater localization, precision engineering and potentially deeper involvement in product development. If the 30-35% production target is achieved, India’s annual iPhone manufacturing value could approach $45 billion by FY31, strengthening the country’s position as one of Apple’s most important global manufacturing hubs.
The bigger challenge will be maintaining cost competitiveness while building a supplier ecosystem capable of matching China’s scale and reliability. Apple will also have to balance geopolitical pressure, U.S. trade policy and China’s established manufacturing infrastructure. If India continues to expand production, exports and local supplier capabilities simultaneously, the iPhone could become an even bigger catalyst for India’s electronics manufacturing ambitions and its transition from assembly-led growth toward higher-value industrial production.
Get the day’s top stories in your inbox
One concise email. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
