Rajasthan’s rabi sowing season is facing delays as a significant rainfall deficit and unusually high temperatures have affected soil moisture conditions across the state. Farmers are struggling to begin planting winter crops such as mustard, wheat and gram on schedule, raising concerns about cultivated area, agricultural output and farm incomes during the 2026-27 season.
The situation follows one of Rajasthan’s weakest monsoon seasons in recent years. The state recorded a rainfall deficit of more than 20% during the southwest monsoon, the highest shortfall in 16 years, according to the state Disaster Management Department. The shortage has reduced residual soil moisture and affected water availability, making it difficult for farmers to prepare their fields for winter cultivation.
Why Is Rabi Sowing Delayed in Rajasthan?
Rabi crops are generally planted between October and December and harvested during March and April.
Unlike kharif crops, which depend heavily on southwest monsoon rainfall, rabi crops rely on residual soil moisture, irrigation facilities and winter rainfall.
This year, Rajasthan’s agricultural cycle has been affected by two major challenges:
1. Rainfall deficit: The state received significantly below-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, leaving insufficient moisture in agricultural fields.
2. High temperatures: Unusually warm conditions have increased concerns about soil moisture loss and delayed the availability of favourable conditions for sowing.
The combination has made farmers more cautious about planting crops, particularly in rain-fed areas where irrigation alternatives are limited.
According to India Meteorological Department data cited in recent reports, Rajasthan recorded a 22% rainfall deficit during the southwest monsoon season.
The shortage has also affected groundwater recharge and water availability in several agricultural regions.
Rajasthan Records Severe Rainfall Deficit Across Districts
The rainfall shortage has not been evenly distributed across Rajasthan.
Several districts experienced substantially lower precipitation than their normal levels.
According to the India Meteorological Department, some of the worst-affected districts include:
| District | Rainfall Deficit |
|---|---|
| Pali | 58% |
| Jaisalmer | 54% |
| Jalore | 50% |
| Banswara | 39% |
| Sirohi | 36% |
The figures highlight the geographical spread of the rainfall shortage.
The state government has declared 80 tehsils across 14 districts severely or moderately drought-affected.
The conditions have affected standing kharif crops as well, with agricultural officials indicating lower production estimates for pearl millet, moong and guar.
The impact on the previous crop season is adding pressure to farmers as they prepare for the next agricultural cycle.
Mustard and Gram Sowing Remain Below Targets
Mustard and gram are among Rajasthan’s most important rabi crops.
However, early sowing figures indicate that planting activity has remained significantly below the government’s targets.
According to agricultural data reported in October, gram sowing in Rajasthan was below 6,000 hectares, while mustard coverage was approximately one lakh hectares.
These figures were reported against much larger cultivation targets for FY27.
Rajasthan Rabi Crop Sowing Targets
| Crop | FY27 Sowing Target | Reported Early Sowing |
|---|---|---|
| Mustard | 37.5 lakh hectares | Approximately 1 lakh hectares |
| Gram | 21.5 lakh hectares | Below 6,000 hectares |
These are early-season figures, not final acreage estimates. Sowing normally continues through November and into December for different crops and regions.
Nevertheless, the slow beginning highlights the challenges farmers face in preparing fields without adequate soil moisture.
Mustard is particularly important for Rajasthan because the state is one of India’s leading producers of the crop.
Any significant reduction in cultivated area could affect domestic oilseed availability and agricultural market prices.
Why Is Rajasthan Important for India’s Rabi Production?
Rajasthan plays an important role in India’s agricultural economy, particularly in oilseeds, pulses and coarse cereals.
The state’s major agricultural crops include:
- Mustard and rapeseed.
- Gram and other pulses.
- Wheat.
- Barley.
- Pearl millet.
- Guar and other commercial crops.
Mustard production is especially important because India depends on domestic oilseed cultivation to meet part of its edible oil requirements.
Gram is another important crop because it contributes to India’s pulse production and provides farmers with an alternative to cereal cultivation.
A delayed sowing season could affect these crops through reduced cultivated area, changes in planting decisions and potentially lower yields.
The final impact will depend on how quickly soil moisture conditions improve and whether farmers receive sufficient irrigation and winter rainfall.
India’s Rabi Sowing Also Starts Slowly in FY27
The challenges in Rajasthan are part of a broader slowdown in India’s winter crop planting season.
Agriculture Ministry data showed that total rabi crops had been sown across 18.02 lakh hectares as of October 23, 2026, compared with 28.26 lakh hectares during the corresponding period last year.
This represents a decline of approximately 36%.
India’s Rabi Sowing Progress
Area in lakh hectares.
| Crop Category | 2026-27 | 2025-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total rabi crops | 18.02 | 28.26 | -36.2% |
| Wheat | 0.11 | 0.27 | -59.3% |
| Rice | 1.02 | 2.13 | -52.1% |
| Pulses | 3.27 | 4.39 | -25.5% |
| Oilseeds | 13.38 | 21.34 | -37.3% |
| Coarse cereals | 0.23 | 0.13 | +76.9% |
The data indicates that the slowdown is not limited to Rajasthan.
Several major agricultural states are dealing with insufficient soil moisture and lower irrigation reserves following the deficient monsoon.
However, the sowing season is still in its early stages, and these figures should not be interpreted as final production estimates.
How the Rainfall Deficit Could Affect Farmers and Food Prices
Delayed rabi sowing can create several economic challenges for farmers and the wider agricultural supply chain.
1. Lower crop acreage
If favourable sowing conditions do not arrive in time, some farmers may reduce the area planted under water-intensive or moisture-sensitive crops.
2. Higher irrigation expenses
Farmers may need to rely more heavily on groundwater and other irrigation sources, increasing cultivation costs.
3. Potential yield losses
Late planting can expose crops to higher temperatures during important growth stages, potentially affecting flowering, grain formation and final yields.
4. Pressure on farm incomes
Lower production and higher input costs could reduce the income farmers earn from their agricultural activities.
5. Food inflation risks
A reduction in mustard, gram and other crop production could affect market availability and increase price pressures if supplies become tighter.
The impact will depend on final sowing acreage, weather conditions and crop productivity.
El Niño and Winter Rainfall Add to Agricultural Uncertainty
The weather outlook is another important factor influencing Rajasthan’s rabi season.
The India Meteorological Department’s November 2026 outlook indicates that most parts of the country could experience above-normal temperatures, while rainfall is expected to remain below normal nationally.
However, parts of northwest and central India could receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
For Rajasthan, winter rainfall associated with Western Disturbances will be particularly important.
These weather systems bring precipitation to northwestern India during winter and can help replenish soil moisture.
Adequate rainfall during the early stages of crop development could improve sowing conditions and reduce dependence on irrigation.
However, if rainfall remains insufficient and temperatures stay elevated, agricultural challenges could continue.
The Bigger Picture
Rajasthan’s delayed rabi sowing highlights how an uneven monsoon can affect agricultural production beyond the immediate rainy season.
The rainfall shortage has already affected kharif crops and is now creating difficulties for winter cultivation. This could have consequences for mustard and pulse production, farm incomes and rural demand.
The situation also demonstrates the importance of irrigation infrastructure, groundwater management and weather forecasting in protecting agricultural productivity.
For India, maintaining stable rabi production is important for food security, edible oil availability and controlling food inflation.
Looking Ahead
The coming weeks will be crucial for Rajasthan’s rabi season. Farmers will monitor soil moisture, irrigation availability and winter rainfall before making final decisions about mustard, wheat and gram cultivation. Any improvement in weather conditions could help recover part of the delayed sowing activity.
However, continued rainfall shortages and elevated temperatures could reduce cultivated area and create pressure on crop yields. The final impact on Rajasthan’s agricultural output will become clearer as the Agriculture Ministry releases further sowing data and the winter weather pattern develops.
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